华东“六省一市”经济增长与CO_2排放的脱钩效应  

The Decoupling Effect of Economic Growth and CO_2 Emissions in“Six Provinces and One City”of East China

作　　者：钱芝网[1,2] 俞佳立 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]上海健康医学院信息管理学院,上海201318

出　　处：《经济与管理》2018年第1期54-59,共6页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171135);上海市教委科研创新项目(13YS145);上海市一流学科建设项目(S120YLXK)

摘　　要：运用Tapio脱钩效应模型对华东地区"六省一市"2005—2014年的经济增长与CO_2排放量进行脱钩状态研究,结果表明:华东地区"六省一市"经济增长与CO_2排放之间确实存在着脱钩效应,且不同省市的脱钩指数差异较大,其中上海、浙江表现最好,脱钩效应逐步由弱脱钩转化为强脱钩。进一步运用灰色预测模型对"十三五"规划期间华东地区"六省一市"经济增长和CO_2排放量进行短期预测,结果显示:上海、浙江经济增长的同时,伴随着CO_2排放量的缓慢下降,将继续保持强脱钩状态;福建、江苏脱钩指数相对较低,福建CO_2排放量有所降低,将向强脱钩状态转变,江苏CO_2排放量有小幅上升,平均脱钩弹性值为0.028,未来有望实现强脱钩;其他省份的结果显示脱钩效应不稳定,将以弱脱钩为主。Using the Tapio deeoupling effect model to study the deeoupling state of economic growth and CO2 emissions of ＂ Six Provinces and One City＂ in East China from 2005 to 2014, and the research shows that the deeoupling effect did exist between the economic growth and CO2 emissions in ＂Six Provinces and One City＂ of East China, and the deeoupling index was quite different from one region to another, the best performance in Shanghai and Zhejiang was that the decoupling effect was gradually changed from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. And then it uses the gray prediction model to give a short-term forecast about the economic growth and CO2 emissions in ＂Six Provinces and One City＂ of East China during the 13th ＂Five-Year＂ Plan period. The results show that Shanghai and Zhejiang province will maintain their strong decoupling state with their economic growing and CO2 emissions＂ decreasing; the decoupling index of Fujian and Jiangsu province is relatively lower, in the next five years, Fujian province will turn into strong decoupling state with decreasing its carbon dioxide emissions, while Jiangsu province＇s carbon dioxide emissions increases slightly with its average decoupling elasticity value as 0.028, and it＇s expected to achieve strong deeoupling in the future; the data of other provinces show their deeoupling effeet＇s instability, and the weak deeoupling will still play the dominant role.

关 键 词：华东地区 经济增长 CO2排放量 Tapio脱钩 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]