地方政府过度负债与“债务-通缩”风险——基于省际面板VAR模型实证研究  

Over-indebtedness of Local Governments and ‘Debt-Deflation’ Risks——Empirical Study Based on VAR Model of Provincial Panel

作　　者：刘进财 戴金平 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所,南开大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心 [2]南开大学国家经济战略研究院,南开大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心

出　　处：《财经科学》2018年第1期64-75,共12页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：地方政府债务规模膨胀已经成为影响经济系统性风险的重要因素之一。本文通过梳理经典的债务通缩理论，研究了地方政府债务与“债务-通缩”的关系。实证研究表明：地方政府债务的持续过度扩张会造成物价水平的下降和阻碍经济的增长，造成经济产出缺口的扩大，加剧产能过剩的风险。而物价水平的下降，会导致地方政府债务率的进一步提高，实际GDP增长率的下降和产能过剩的恶化。地方政府过度负债可能会产生“债务-通缩”的风险。The expansion of the scale of local government debt has become one of the important factors affecting the systemic risk of the economy. By combing the classic debt deflation theory, this paper studies the relationship between local governments debt and ＂debt-deflation＂. Empirical studies show that the continued over-expansion of local government debt will cause the price level to drop and hinder economic growth, resulting in the expansion of economic output gap and aggravating the risk of overcapacity. That the price level to drop will lead to further increase in the local government debt rate, the decline in real GDP growth and the deterioration of overcapacity. Over-indebtedness by local governments can create a ＂debt-deflation＂ risk.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 债务-通缩 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]