β收敛、空间依赖与中国制造业发展  

A Study on β Convergence and Spatial Dependence of China's Manufacturing Industry from the Global Financial Crisis to China's New Normal

作　　者：刘明 王思文 

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心 [2]兰州财经大学统计学院 [3]兰州财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2018年第2期3-23,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"基于空间统计技术的中国制造业新常态发展路径研究"(批准号:16CTJ009)的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:2007~2015年中国制造业发展β收敛性问题。研究方法:基于Barro和Sala-I-Martin的思想构建了包含空间因素的两组收敛模型以考察中国制造业的收敛性,利用新构建的两组收敛模型并结合σ收敛和Barro和Sala-I-Martin的β收敛,对中国整体及各区域制造业收敛性分别从时间维度和空间维度展开研究。研究发现:从时间维度考察的σ收敛和β收敛表明,中国制造业存在σ收敛和β收敛特征,其中β收敛特征在不同的样本期内和不同的样本区域内差异性明显。从空间视角构建的空间收敛模型表明,中国制造业的空间收敛性是明显的,但进入经济新常态以后,相较于金融危机时期,空间收敛的速度降低。综合时间角度和空间角度的研究结果认为,中国制造业发展过程中存在明显的收敛性。研究创新:设计构建新的空间收敛模型来检验中国制造业的空间收敛性。研究价值:产业收敛性问题的研究可以从时间和空间两个维度展开;中国制造业的收敛性特征存在区域差异。Research Objectives： Discussing the β convergence characteristics of China＇s manufacturing industry. Research Methods： Using Barro and Sala-I-Martin β convergence equation to make two new models from spatial perspective, and using these models including Barro and Sala-I-Martin＇s β convergence equation to research the convergence of China＇s manufacturing industry from temporal dimension and spatial dimension. Research Findings： The investigation of σ convergence and β convergence from temporal dimension showed that, China＇s manufacturing industry existed σ convergence and β convergence features, which β convergence features was different in different sample period and different sample regional. The investigation of β convergence from spatial dimension showed that, In financial crisis during 2007- 2010, spatial β convergence feature was obvious, but in China＇s New Normal during 2011-9015, the spatial β convergence was fading. In the view of the perspective on time and space, China＇s manufacturing industry was convergence. Research Innovations： Designing and building new models to test the spatial convergence of China＇s manufacturing industry. Research Value： Studying on the industrial convergence could be from the two dimensions of time and space. Convergence characteristics of Chinese manufacturing industry had regional differences.

关 键 词：制造业 时间β收敛 空间β收敛 时空β收敛 

分 类 号：F424.2[经济管理—产业经济]