消费结构升级、要素价格扭曲与中国农业劳动力转移  

Household Consumption Upgrade,Factor Price Distortion and Rural-To-Urban Labor Migration in China

作　　者：俞剑[1] 方福前[2] 程冬 郑文平 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学经济学院 [3]范德比尔特大学经济系 [4]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2018年第1期47-61,共15页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中国经济自发展能力研究"(项目号:15ZDB133);国家社科基金青年项目"中国居民消费结构转变对经济波动的影响研究"(项目号:16CJL012)资助

摘　　要：通过构建一个两部门动态一般均衡模型,本文主要研究消费结构升级、要素价格扭曲等因素对中国农业劳动力转移的影响。基于稳态的数值计算结果表明,上述因素对农业劳动力转移都有不同程度的正面影响。当所有因素同时改变0.1个单位时,消费结构升级对农业劳动力转移的影响程度最大,为4.63%,紧随其后的是部门间资本租金扭曲与部门技术进步,部门间工资扭曲的影响程度最弱,仅为0.84%。不仅如此,前三种因素对农业劳动力转移的影响都是非常显著的,这表明促成中国农业劳动力转移的主导原因是复合型的,这与美国经济城乡一体化进程中的情形有很大不同。This paper constructs a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the mechanism of how each of the following factors influence China＇ s rural- to- urban labor migration, i.e., household consumption upgrade, sectorial capital rent distortion, and wage distortion. We also explore the relative contribution of each factor in a unified framework. Our steady-state numerical results show that each of the above factors has a positive impact on labor migration to a different extent. When all four factors deviate by 0.1 unit from the initial steady state, household consumption upgrade exhibits the largest impact by promoting 4.63% more labor migration. The capital rent distortion and technology progress come closely with 2.68% and 2.34% more migration while wage distortion has the weakest effect with only 0.84% more. The top three factors all have significant impact on labor migration, suggesting that the dominant reason for China＇s rural-to-urban labor migration is essentially compound, which is significantly different from the United States case with just a single leading cause.

关 键 词：动态一般均衡模型 消费结构 劳动力转移 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F323.6