美国拟征收碳关税对我国出口贸易的影响分析  

Analysis on the Impact of US Carbon Tariff on China’s Export Trade

作　　者：石红莲[1] 赵越[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第2期61-65,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于中外比较及博弈分析的政府统计组织与改革研究”(71463052)

摘　　要：碳关税是发达国家提出的针对高能耗的进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。碳关税一旦征收，我国出口贸易将受到强烈冲击。文章首先对美国征收碳关税对我国出口贸易的影响进行定性分析，然后利用中美贸易与关税数据得出关税一出口效应，并以隐含碳排放较高的工业部门为例，定量分析了美国征收碳关税所导致的我国出口贸易的损失率。研究结果表明：碳关税的征收，不仅会降低我国产品的出口价格，同时会降低出口贸易量；出口损失率最大的前五个部门分别是电力、热力的生产和供应业，金属冶炼及压延加工业，非金属矿物制品业，水的生产和供应业与金属制品业，其中，电力、热力的生产和供应业的出口损失率最大，损失率高达33．27487％；通信设备、计算机及其他设备制造业，纺织业，纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业等出口比重较多的部门的出口损失率维持在3％～4％；而出口比重最高的电器机械及器材制造业的出口损失率也较高，为6．012184％。Carbon tariff is a new type of green trade barrier for high energy consumption of imported products, which will be proposed by developed countries. Once carbon tariff is imposed, China＇s export trade will suffer a strong impact. This paper first qualitatively analyzes the impact of US carbon tariff on China＇s export trade, and then uses the China-US trade and tariff data to obtain the tariff-export effect, and takes the industrial sectors with high carbon emissions as examples to quantitatively analyze the loss rate of China＇s export trade caused by the imposition of US carbon tariff. The results show that the imposition of carbon tariff will not only reduce the export price of our products, but also reduce the export trade volume. The top five sectors with the largest export loss rate are electricity, heat production and supply industry, metal smelting and roiling Industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, water production and supply industry and the metal products industry, of which the electricity, heat production and supply industry has the largest export loss rate and it reaches as high as 33.274 87%. The sectors, such as communications equipment, computer and other equipment manufacturing industry, textile industry, textile and apparel shoes and hats leather feathers and their products that have the higher proportion of exports, and export loss rate will remain at 3%--4%. electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry that has the highest proportion of export which loss rate will reaches 6.012 184%.

关 键 词：碳关税 出口贸易 损失率 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]