制度变迁与旅游经济增长——基于双重差分方法的“局改委”政策评估  

Institutional Change and Tourism Economic Growth:Policy Evaluation of Replacing the TB with the TDC Based on the Double Difference Method

作　　者：李光勤[1,2,3] 胡志高[1] 曹建华 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433 [3]浙江农林大学暨阳学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2018年第1期13-24,共12页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：浙江省高校重大人文社科项目攻关计划项目"代际收入流动性对居民收入差异的传导机制研究:基于‘二代’现象的理论解释"(2014QN027)资助~~

摘　　要：为了考察旅游局变更为旅游发展委员会对旅游经济增长的影响,文章将进行"局改委"的地级市作为处理组,将未进行"局改委"的地级市作为控制组,构建286个地级市2000—2013年的面板数据集,采用固定效应模型对"局改委"的政策效果进行评估。研究发现,从国内旅游收入、国内旅游人数、旅游外汇收入、境外旅游人数,以及国内旅游收入的增长率等方面来考察,"局改委"确实显著促进了地区旅游经济的增长。为了验证结果的可靠性,文章还采用Probit模型对可能存在的选择性偏误问题进行了检验,结果表明,地区旅游经济增长水平与决定是否进行"局改委"之间并无必然联系,没有充分的证据说明旅游经济的增长与"局改委"之间存在自选择问题。此外,对"局改委"影响旅游经济增长机制的分析还表明,"局改委"对旅游经济增长的影响是通过提高地区旅游资源禀赋实现的。After almost forty years of reform and opening-up policy, China＇s tourism industry has achieved significant development, and the institutional design of tourism management also changed considerably： in 1964, with China＇s Travel and Tourism Management Bureau, the State Council initiated a special functional department to manage both international and domestic tourism affairs. In 1993, China＇s Travel and Tourism Management Bureau was renamed the China National Tourism Administration and placed under direct leadership of the State Council. Many provinces and cities followed this example and initiated the Tourism Bureau（TB）, responsible for the overall development of the tourism industry. However, since the beginning of the new century, various regions have changed the name of the TB to the Tourism Development Committee（TDC）. It is intriguing why the government is keen to turn the TB into the TDC, what the deep institutional background of this committee could be and whether this institutional change will promote the development of regional tourism. Three reasons（obtained via theoretical analysis） may explain the underlying reasons： first,after this renaming, the TDC can co-ordinate tourism resources, highlight their characteristics, increase the investment for tourism, and rationalize the utilization of tourism resources; second, the reform can update the image of scenic spots, and increase their public fame to increase their appeal; third, correctlyjudging the stage characteristics of tourism development, will enable to initiate the right projects to meet the needs of tourists.To explore the effects of replacing the TB with the TDC with regard to the economic growth of tourism, this paper builds a fixed effect model, using the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from2000 to 2013. A prefecture-level city that integrated this replacement was set as the experimental group,and another prefecture-level city was used as control group to evaluate the effect of the policy reform.The results show

关 键 词：制度变迁 旅游经济增长 双重差 “局改委” 政策评估 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]