2005-2015年宁夏布鲁氏菌病流行现状及发病预测  

Epidemic Situation and Incidence Forecast of Brucellosis in Ningxia from 2005 to 2015

作　　者：马旭[1] 马天波[1] 付益仁[1] 朱海阳[1] 张敏[1] MA Xu;MA Tianbo;FU Yiren;ZHU Haiyang;ZHANG Min(Ningxia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan 75000)

机构地区：[1]宁夏疾病预防控制中心,银川750004

出　　处：《宁夏医科大学学报》2017年第10期1163-1165,1170,共4页Journal of Ningxia Medical University

摘　　要：目的分析2005-2015年宁夏布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)流行病学特征,预测发病趋势,为疫情控制提供科学依据。方法对2005-2015年宁夏布病网络报告数据信息进行描述性统计学分析;利用加权算术平均预测法,对布病发病趋势进行预测。结果 2005-2015年全区共报告布病病例7480例,年平均报告发病率为10.897/10万,总体发病呈上升趋势(χ2=8869.798,P<0.05);在报告的7480例病例中,发病年龄集中在20~60岁,占88.78%;男性多于女性,性别比为2.71∶1,职业分布以农民最多,占报告病例总数的81.54%;吴忠市报告发病人数最多,报告3887例,占病例总数的51.97%,累计发病率为335.861/10万;发病主要集中在4~9月份;预测2016-2020年宁夏人间布病发病率将依次为27.726/10万、29.906/10万、31.505/10万、32.123/10万、31.776/10万。结论近几年宁夏布病疫情上升明显,在未来5年的发病可能会维持在一个相对高的水平。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Brucellosis in Ningxia from 2005 to 2015,to predict the epidemic trend of human Brucellosis and to provide evidences for control and prevention of the disease. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was performed using Ningxia brucellosis information network reporting data from 2005 to 2015. Using the method of weighted arithmetic average,incidence trends of brucellosis in Ningxia were predicted. Results A total of 7480 cases of human Brucellosis were reported from 2005 to 2015 in Ningxia and the average annual incidence rate was 10. 897/100000. The incidence of brucellosis in Ningxia showed a significant rising trend（χ2=8869. 798,P〈0. 05）. Of all reported cases,88. 78 % cases were at the ages of 20~60 years old and gender ratio of cases was 2. 71 ∶ 1. The proportion of farmer cases accounted for 81. 54 % and the number of cases in Wuzhong City was 3887 accounting for 51. 97 % and the cumulative incidence rate was 335. 86/100000. Brucellosis cases concentrated primarily from April to September. The predicted incidence of Brucellosis in Ningxia from 2016 to 2020 was 27.726/100000,29.906/100000,31.505/100000,32.123/100000,31.776/100000,respectively. Conclusion Brucellosis incidence showed a significantly rising trend recent years in Ningxia and it will remain a relatively high level in future period.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病 流行现状 预测 宁夏 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R516.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]