基于乘数理论的武威市旅游产业对经济发展贡献分析  

Analysis of Contribution of Tourism Industry to Regional Economy of Wuwei Based on Multiplier Theory

作　　者：晋艺波[1] 张玉梅[2] 张海燕[1] JIN YiBo;ZHANG Yumei;ZHANG Haiyan(Department of Economics and Management Wuwei Occupational College, Wuwei Gansu 733000;Department of Electronic Information, Engineering Wuwei Occupational College, Wuwei Gansu 733000)

机构地区：[1]武威职业学院经济管理系,甘肃武威733000 [2]武威职业学院电子信息工程系,甘肃武威733000

出　　处：《宁夏师范学院学报》2017年第6期86-92,共7页Journal of Ningxia Normal University

基　　金：甘肃省财政厅;教育厅高等学校科研项目"武威市旅游-经济-生态环境系统耦合协调关系实证研究"(2017A-276)

摘　　要：利用乘数理论,选择2004年-2016年武威市旅游产业的统计数据,使用计量经济学方法建立武威市国内生产总值关于旅游产业总收入和固定资产投资额的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,计算旅游收入乘数与固定资产投资乘数,来研究武威市旅游产业对本地国民经济发展的贡献程度,实证研究结果表明:武威市旅游收入乘数变动大,2004年-2008年先波动变化,2008年-2016年后平稳下降的趋势;武威市旅游收入乘数效应大于固定资产投资乘数效应,投资旅游产业更能拉动武威区域经济增长;武威市旅游收入乘数效应低于甘肃省旅游收入乘数效应,与甘肃整体相比还有较大的差距.By using multipl ier theory,for the statistical data of tourism industry of Wuwei city from 2004 to 2016,this paper es-tablish the Cobb-Douglas production function with respect to the overall income of tourism and fixed investments in gross domestic product （ GDP） for Wuw-ei city, and calculate the tourism income multiplier and fixed investment multiplier respectively to investigate the contribution degree of tourism industry on local development of national economy. The experiment study results show-n that the fluc-tuation of tourism income multiplier is bigger. More porcisely,first,it display fluctuate during 2004 to 2008,and then stable decline from 2008 to 2016. The effect of tourism income multiplier is larger than that of fixed investments multiplies,w-hich implies that the in-vestment of tourism industry can promote the increase of local economic development significantly. However,the tourism income multi-plier is smaller than that of overall province,which means that it is still has a gap between Wuw-ei city and Gansu province.

关 键 词：乘数理论 武威市 旅游产业 经济贡献 柯布-道格拉斯函数 

分 类 号：F592.99[经济管理—旅游管理]