气象舒适条件对呼吸系统疾病的影响  

The impact of meteorological comfort conditions on respiratory disease

作　　者：马盼[1,2] 王式功[1,2] 尚可政[2] 黎檀实[3] 尹岭[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国人民解放军总医院,北京100853

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2018年第1期374-382,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金课题(QXJK201701);国家自然科学基金项目(91644226);国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"重点专项项目(2016YFA0602004);国家基础科技条件平台建设项目(NCMI-SJS15-201607)

摘　　要：采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型,研究单个气象要素和以"通用的热气候指数"表征的多要素综合效应与北京市2009~2012年呼吸系统疾病急诊人数的暴露-响应关系,并按年龄、性别分层.结果表明,对全人群而言,高温效应即时,低温作用滞后;湿度<30%能显著增加发病风险,且效应持久;3m/s风速对应发病风险最低.少儿(≤14岁)受热胁迫影响最强,尤其突出高温高湿作用;成人(15~59岁)受冷胁迫影响强且滞后性;老年患者(>60岁)对冷胁迫敏感,着重防范低温低湿.采用舒适指数探讨环境对呼吸系统疾病的影响优于单要素表征,可加深对发病气象成因的理解,为科学预防、预测预警提供新思路.The distributed lag nonlinear model and generalized additive model were applied to study the exposure- response relationship between meteorological conditions and the number of emergency room （ER） visits for respiratory diseases, from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing, China. The Universal Thermal Climate Index （UTCI） was used as an indicator of climate thermal condition. Immediate influence of high temperatures and lag effect of low temperatures on the incidence were revealed. Relative humidity （RH） 〈30% significantly increased the risk of onset, and its lag effect reached more than 10days. The RR of wind speed 3m/s was the smallest. When considering the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, children （≤14years） were more sensitive to heat stress than cold stress, especially the ‘hot and humidity’ circumstance. While for adults （15~59years）, the impact of cold stress was particularly significant, which lagged for 1~2days and lasted a long time. The elders （〉60years） were more vulnerable to cold stress than heat stress, the condition that low temperatures and low humidity occur simultaneously should be paid particular attention. Employing UTCI as a characterization of the comprehensive thermal state of the environment is a feasible way to investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the incidence of respiratory diseases, which may enhance related theoretical basis and provide new ideas for disease forecasting and early warning.

关 键 词：呼吸系统疾病 气象条件 舒适度 多要素综合效应 滞后性 

分 类 号：X503.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]