洪水峰量联合分布的4种重现水平对比  

Comparative analysis on four recurrence levels of joint distribution of flood peak discharge and volume

作　　者：陈子燊[1] 刘占明[2] 赵青 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理学院,广东广州510275 [2]佛山科学技术学院,广东佛山528000 [3]中山市南区水利所,广东中山528455

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期130-135,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371498)

摘　　要：基于Archimedean copula函数、Kendall和生存Kendall函数对比分析洪峰和洪量联合分布的四种重现水平。以增江麒麟咀水文站年最大洪峰与相应的洪量样本为例,择优选用Gumbel-Hougaard copula计算洪水峰量联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期,Kendall重现期和生存Kendall重现期及其最可能的设计洪水值。对比不同的洪水重现期发现:(1)相对于"或"联合重现期,Kendall重现期能更准确地反映洪水峰量联合分布的风险率;(2)相对于"且"联合重现期,生存Kendall重现期可更准确地反映洪水峰量同时超阈值的风险率;(3)按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量洪水要素设计值已达安全标准,按两变量"或"重现期和两变量洪水同频率设计值推算的洪水设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的两变量洪水要素的Kendall重现期和生存Kendall重现期设计值可为防洪工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。This article comparatively analyzed the four designed flood recurrence levels of bivariate flood joint distribution of flood peak discharges and flood volumes by using Archimedean copulas function, Kendall distribution function and survival Kendall distribution function. The annual maximum flood peak discharges and the corresponding flood volumes of Qilinzui hydrometric station at Zengjiang River as an example, the ‘OR’ primary return periods, ‘AND’ primary return periods, Kendall return periods and survival Kendall return periods of bivariate flood joint distribution and the most likely design flood quantiles were computed by using the optimally fitted Gumbel Hougaard copula. The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows： comparing the different specific flood return periods, the Kendall return periods can be more accurately reflect the flood risks relative to ‘OR’ primary return periods; while the survival Kendall return period can be more accurately reflect the flood risks when two variables for flood were supercritical at the same time with respect to ‘AND’ primary return periods. The univariate flood design value has reached safety standards according to the relevant specifications of the current design requirements. The estimated flood design quantiles of the ‘OR’ primary return periods and two variables with the same frequency were obviously higher than the single variable floods. The most likely design realizations of the Kendall return periods and the survival Kendall return periods can serve as a new selection for flood control projects safety and risk management.

关 键 词：洪水风险评估 “或”重现期 “且”重现期 Kendall重现期 生存Kendall重现期 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]