突发洪水灾害事件关联度模型  

Correlation Degree of Unconventional Flood Disaster Events Based on Hyper Network Model

作　　者：李锋[1,2,3] 王慧敏 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212003 [2]河海大学商学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第7期47-52,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CGL069);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433003);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303074);江苏科技大学科研启动基金资助项目

摘　　要：洪水灾害发生过程中各事件之间的关联度直接影响洪水灾害的演化方向。基于知识元理论,分析突发洪水演进过程中的洪水灾害系统要素,构建系统要素知识元模型,通过分析环境单元、承灾载体知识元与灾害事件知识元间的作用关系,建立环境单元、承灾载体知识元子网络与突发事件知识元子网络构成的超网络。利用超边相似度匹配算法,计算突发洪水灾害演化过程各事件知识元的关联度,定量描述突发洪水灾害事件关联关系及程度,为后续研究洪水灾害事件演化、挖掘事件间隐藏关系提供支持。以沂沭河流域洪水灾害演化过程为例,计算沂沭河流域突发洪水灾害事件间的关联度,以关联关系图表示,证实了研究方法的有效性。The flood evolution direction is directly influenced by flood disaster event correlation degree. Based on knowledge element theory, the key elements of flood disaster in the flood evolution process are analyzed. Meanwhile, the knowledge element models are constructed. By analyzing the action relation of emergency event net and hazard hearing body and environment net, the hyper network is constructed. The flood disaster event correlation degree is calculated based on algorithm of super edge similarity measures, the correlation of flood disaster events is described quantitatively, which support for further investigation of flood evolution, and mining the hidden relationship. Taking Yishu river storm and flood for example, the effectiveness of this method is verified by calculating the flood disaster event correlation degree and constructing the correlation map of flood disaster events.

关 键 词：突发洪水 超网络 知识元 事件链 事件关联度 

分 类 号：TP182[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]