需求不确定环境下手机互联网直销渠道的影响  

The Internet Direct Marketing Channel of Phone with Uncertain Demands

作　　者：颜波[1] 刘巳 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第7期107-114,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2016A030313485;2017A030313415);广东省软科学研究计划项目(2015A070704005);广东省科技计划项目(2013B040500007;2013B040200057);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2015KXKYJ02)

摘　　要：在手机互联网直销背景下,根据鞅理论模型结合实际分别建立分散式决策和集中式决策的手机MTS供应链系统生产决策过程,分析了包含单个供应商和单个制造商的两级供应链系统,研究关于供应商与制造商的生产决策和市场需求反馈的信息质量改进之间的关系,研究结果表明:在集中式决策的手机MTS供应链系统中,整个供应链系统期望收益会随着信息质量的改进而增加且整体收益水平大于分散式决策供应链系统;在分散式决策的MTS供应链系统中,供应商的产量会随着信息质量的改进先增大后减小,而其期望收益会随着信息质量的改进而减少;同时制造商的期望收益会随着信息质量的改进而增加;整个供应链系统的期望收益变化趋势会随着信息质量的改进先减少后增加。In the context of mobile phone internet direct sales, According to the model of martingale theory, the decision making process of the mobile MTS supply chain system with decentralized decision and centralized decision is set up. We analyze a two stage supply chain system including a single supplier and a single manufacturer and the relationship between the supplier and the manufacturer＇s production decision and the improved market demand feedback information quality. Research results show that in the centralized supply ehain the expected profits of the whole supply chain system will increase with the improvement of the information quality; In the decentralized supply chain, the output of the supplier will decrease with the improvement of the information quality, and the expected profits will decrease with the improve- ment of the information quality; At the same time, the manufacturer＇s expected profits will increase and the expected profits of the whole supply chain system will decrease firstly and then increase with the improvement of the information quality.

关 键 词：信息质量 供应链 互联网直销 鞅理论模型 MTS系统 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]