基于贝叶斯网络的跨境电商海关风险  

Cross Boarder E-commerce Customs Risk Control Based on Bayes Network

作　　者：胡蓉[1] 高翔[1] 黄丙志[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海关学院,上海201204

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第7期115-121,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AGL006);上海教委创新项目(14YS161);胡蓉工作小组项目;上海海关学院通关监管工作室项目;跨境电商科研创新团队项目

摘　　要：跨境电商货物不同于传统的货物,跨境贸易的收发货人更加隐蔽、单票货物数量少,交易频次高、风险要素波动性强,换言之,风险的不确定性更大,海关在实际监管中面临困境,跨境电商的海关监管效能又直接影响着跨境贸易的开展,跨境电商的海关风险管理是海关监管乃至跨境交易顺利开展的关键环节。本文在此背景下,全面梳理了跨境电商海关监管存在的风险要素,并利用贝叶斯网络建立了全面衡量跨境电商海关监管的风险模型,为跨境电商的风险动态监管研究,进行了初步的探索,构建更安全便利的电商环境。E-commerce cargo is different from traditional goods in that the shipper and consignee of cross boarder trade are more concealed, the volume is less but the frequency is more, which means the uncertainty of risk are bigger. Customs face more challenges on e-commerce business. The efficiency and effectiveness of customs control will influence on the e-commerce. The key point is the customs risk managements of ecommerce. Under such background, the said thesis analysis the potential risks of e-commerce then create the model of overall customs ecommerce control based on Bayes network. This study on the e-commerce cross boarder customs control and create the safe and facilitated business environ- ments.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 跨境电商 海关风险 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]