基于系统动力学的污水处理BOT项目特许定价  

Concession Pricing Model for BOT Projects of Waste Water Treatment Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：宋金波 张紫薇 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第7期138-145,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(71734001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71472022;71672018);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DUT17ZD208)

摘　　要：特许定价是污水处理BOT项目特许决策的重要内容。本文采用系统动力学方法,绘制了污水处理BOT项目特许定价系统的因果关系图和系统动力学流图,应用Vensim软件进行模拟仿真,并以建设成本、运营成本、中水回用率、折现率、特许期等变量为敏感性分析参数,给出不同变量组合下特许价格的仿真结果。通过分析上述变量对特许定价的影响,为污水处理BOT项目特许定价决策提供理论参考和决策依据。Concession pricing is an essential problem for build-operate-transfer （BOT） contract. Based on the method of system dynamics （SD）, this paper draws the causal loop diagrams and stock flow diagrams, then applies the Vensim simulation software to a BOT project of waste water treatment. The sensitivity analysis is conducted by using the parameters such as construction cost, operation cost, sewage reuse rate, discount rate, concession period. Then the combination of various variables has been investigated to discuss the influence to concession price. The result provides a theoretical reference for BOT projects of waste water treatment.

关 键 词：BOT 污水处理 特许定价 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济]