黑龙江省境内黑土带地区化肥施用量的时空异质性  

Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Chemical Fertilizer Application in the Black Soil Zone of Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：赵大伟[1] 曲凯欣 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学,哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2018年第2期88-92,104,共6页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(16YJA790067)

摘　　要：从空间和时间双重维度对黑龙江省境内黑土带地区化肥施用量的成因、趋势进行分析,利用非平稳时间序列加法模型对黑龙江省境内黑土带地区的化肥施用量进行预测。结果表明:在空间上,施肥量是由要素投入、经济发展水平、农作物播种面积、农作物产量、教育发展水平等多重因素综合导致的;在时间上,施肥量仍将逐年增加,到2020年黑龙江省境内黑土带涵盖的21市、县的化肥平均施用量为50 645.05 t。We analyzed the causes and trends of chemical fertilizer application in the black soil zone of Heilongjiang Province from the dimensions of space and time, and predicted the chemical fertilizer application in the black soil zone of Heilongjiang Province with the additive model of non-stationary time series. The chemical fertilizer application spatially depends on element input, economic development, sowing area of crop, crop yield, educational development and other factors. The chemical fertilizer application will ceaselessly increase year by year under the time dimension. The average chemical fertilizer application of 21 areas in the black soil zone of Heilongjiang Province will reach 50 645.05 t in 2020.

关 键 词：黑土区 化肥施用量 时空异质性 

分 类 号：S146[农业科学—肥料学] S153[农业科学—农业基础科学]