全球变化对区域水土资源与环境质量的影响  

The Impact of Global Change on Regional Land-Water Resources and Environmental Quality

作　　者：夏星辉[1] 鲍振鑫[2] 霍守亮[3] 徐影[4] 严登华[5] 黄巧云[6] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院/水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [3]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081 [5]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [6]华中农业大学,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国基础科学》2017年第6期30-35,共6页China Basic Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项项目(2017YFA0605000)

摘　　要：水土资源是人类赖以生存的物质基础,是保障国家水安全和粮食安全的根本;水土资源的优化配置已成为全球生态环境保护和经济发展共生的有效途径。在全球变化背景下,水资源的水质水量以及土地资源的格局和土壤环境质量都将发生深刻的变化。因此揭示全球变化对区域水土资源和环境质量的影响,预估全球变化背景下区域水土资源和环境质量的变化趋势,并将这种影响纳入水土资源优化配置模型中,建立全球变化背景下规避生态环境风险的水土资源优化配置模型是当前国际研究的重大热点和前沿命题,是我国亟需解决的国家重大需求。未来相关研究需以全球变化背景下大气—陆面—水文—环境过程演变为主线,需重点研究4项内容:水土界面物质能量迁移传输和相互作用过程及规律分析、区域水土资源空间网络系统变化特征和驱动机制、气候变化对区域水土资源和环境质量的影响评价、全球增暖1.5℃/2℃区域水土资源优化配置模式设计。解决3大科学问题:气候变化背景下水土界面物质/能量迁移转化过程及规律、区域水土资源空间网络系统对全球变化的响应过程及机理、全球变化背景下水土资源优化配置原理及环境风险规避机制。Water and land resources, as the fundamental of protecting the national water and food security, are the material basis of human survival. Optimal allocation of water and land resources has become the effective approach to the mutualistic symbiosis of global ecological protection and economic development. In the context of global change, water quantity and quality as well as the land use pattern and land quality will experience profound changes. Therefore, revealing and predicting the influence of global change on regional water-land resources and environmental quality, adding the influenceas model scenarios and establishing the optimal allocation model of water and land resources under global change to alleviate the ecological risk, are the major hotspots and frontier research worldwide as well as important national demand which need to be solved. Future studies should focus on the evolution of atmospheric-terrestrial-hydrological -environmental processes. Four contents are put forward as key research including analysis on the process and rule of energy migration and interaction in the water-land interface; characteristics and driving mechanism of regional spatial and temporal variations in water and land resources; the influencing assessment of climate change on regional water-land resource and environmental quality; the model design of optimal allocation of water and land resource with temperature increasing 1.5℃/2℃. Three major scientific issues should be solved, which include： the migration and transformation process and rule of material/energy in the water-land interface under climate change; the influencing process and mechanism of climate change on regional water and land spatial network system; optimal allocation of water and land resource and the environmental risk avoiding mechanism under global change.

关 键 词：全球变化 环境质量 水资源 土地资源 污染物迁移转化 碳氮循环 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]