房价上涨对中国工业增长挤出效应研究  

Study on the Crowding-out Effect of the Rising Housing Prices on China's Industrial Growth

作　　者：张坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河科技学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第12期58-61,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：以产业结构合理化与时间为门槛变量,采用门槛模型分析后发现,房价上涨在产业结构合理化水平较低时以及2011年以来对中国工业增长的挤出效应显著。较高的产业结构合理化水平有助于弱化房价上涨对产业结构效应的负向影响,因房价上涨体现了优势资源的空间集聚,若极化效应占主导则会加剧各地区工业发展的不平衡。为此,提出降低资本投入成本和税负成本,促进创新提高工业企业利润等政策建议。Taking the rationalization of industrial structure and time as the threshold variables, and using threshold model to make analysis, this paper finds that the rising housing price has made a significant Crowding-out effect on China＇s industrial growth at the low level rationalization of industrial structure as well as after 2011. The higher level rationalization of industrial structure will promote to weaken the negative impact of rising housing prices on the industrial structure effect, because the rising housing prices reflects the spatial agglomeration of the superior resources. If the polarization effect dominates, it will aggravate the imbalance of industrial development in all regions. Therefore, some suggestions are put forward such as reduction of the capital investment costs and tax burden,promotion of innovation and increase of industrial enterprises profits etc.

关 键 词：房价上涨 中国工业增长 挤出效应 门槛效应 产业结构合理化 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F424