解读过去、预告未来:IODP气候与海洋变化钻探研究进展与展望  

Reading the Past,Informing the Future:Progress and Prospective of the Recent Ocean Drilling Researches on Climate and Ocean Change

作　　者：翦知湣[1] 党皓文[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学海洋地质国家重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2017年第12期1267-1276,共10页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"晚第四纪冰期旋回中热带海气CO2交换格局的变化及其控制因素"(编号:41630965);国家海洋局国际合作项目"亚洲大陆边缘的古海洋与古地理演化"(编号:GASI-GEOGE-04)资助~~

摘　　要：2013年启动的国际大洋发现计划(IODP)针对当前大气温室气体浓度急剧升高和全球变暖的气候变化现状,提出全球气候对CO2增高的响应、冰盖和海平面对全球变暖的响应、中—低纬水文循环的变化机制以及海洋碳化学体系的缓冲能力等4个科学挑战。截至2017年8月已经完成的8个IODP气候变化主题航次聚焦于亚洲—太平洋—印度洋区域的季风过程和西太平洋暖池的新生代演变,着重探索轨道—千年尺度上亚洲季风系统的变化特征和主导机制,以及构造时间尺度上亚洲季风与青藏高原隆升和剥蚀的动力联系。未来2年IODP将瞄准南半球高纬的冰盖、海冰、洋流和碳循环等气候因子,重点考察新生代西南极冰盖和海冰变化、白垩纪和古近纪南大洋的海洋环流和碳循环等。因此,IODP旨在深入探索以亚洲季风和西太平洋暖池为代表的热带海洋气候过程和以西南极冰盖为代表的高纬气候因子在多种时间尺度上的演变,为认识当前气候变化、预测未来气候趋势提供自然变化的科学依据。中国的优势在于全球季风概念和热带驱动假说方面的研究,特别是巽他陆架的气候效应。Aiming at the current climate status, i.e., drastic rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the apparent trend of global warming, the International Ocean Discovery Program （IODP）, launched in 2013, proposed four scientific challenges, including the response of global climate to CO2 rise, the feedback of ice-sheet and sealevel to global warming, the dynamics of the mid- and low-latitude hydro-cycle, and the mechanism of the marine carbon-chemical buffering system. By August 2017, eight IODP expeditions of climate-related themes were imple- mented, focusing on the Neogene evolution of the monsoon system over Asia-Pacific-Indian and the West Pacific Warm Pool, with specific interests in the variabilities and mechanisms of the Asian Monsoon system on orbital-to millennial-scales, as well as the connections between Asian Monsoon and the uplift/weathering of the Tibetan Plat- eau on tectonic time scale. The planned IODP expeditions in the forthcoming two years will explore the Southern high-latitude climate histories of West Antarctic ice in the Cenozoic, and Southern Ocean currents and carbon cycle in the Cretaceous-Paleogene. In sum, during the current phase of IODP （2013-2023） , our knowledge about the marine climate system would be greatly advanced via deciphering the past changes in tropical processes of Asian Monsoon and West Pacific Warm Pool, as well as in high-latitude factors of the West Antarctic ice. A better scientific background of natural variability would be provided, accordingly, for predicting the future tendency in climate change. In this context, China＇ s strategic directions include the global monsoon concept, the tropical forcing hypothesis, and in particular the climate effect of the Sunda Shelf.

关 键 词：国际大洋发现计划 气候变化 全球季风 西太平洋暖池 

分 类 号：P756.5[天文地球—海洋科学]