基于灰色关联模型对乌鲁木齐市PM_(10)浓度的影响因素分析  

Analysis of the influencing factors of PM_(10) in Urumqi city based on grey correlation model

作　　者：盛永财 孜比布拉.司马义 买合木提.巴拉提 阿不都外力.阿不力克木 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《黑龙江大学自然科学学报》2017年第6期714-723,共10页Journal of Natural Science of Heilongjiang University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41661036);新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室开放课题(040079);新疆维吾尔自治区地方公派出国留学成组配套项目(117/40299006)

摘　　要：基于乌鲁木齐市2006~2015年空气污染物数据、气象数据和城市发展数据,构建了乌鲁木齐市PM_(10)浓度影响指标体系,通过熵值法对PM_(10)浓度影响指标因子做了综合评价分析,利用灰色关联模型对PM_(10)浓度及其影响指标因子、影响指标层做了灰色关联度分析。研究发现:(1)PM_(10)浓度的影响指标因子依据其变化趋势可以分为两类;(2)城市化与产业结构对乌鲁木齐市PM_(10)的浓度影响最大(wi=0.418 1),其次是PM_(10)污染物来源(wi=0.387 9),空气污染物与气象要素对PM_(10)的浓度影响最小(wi=0.194 1);(3)从发展水平看,城市化与产业结构>PM_(10)污染物来源>空气污染物与气象要素;(4)在28个影响指标因子中,与PM_(10)浓度呈中度关联的指标因子有生活垃圾处理量、房屋建筑施工面积和地区工业总产值,其余25个指标因子与PM_(10)浓度都呈强度关联;(5)三个指标层与PM_(10)浓度的灰色关联度都为强度关联;(6)空气各污染物与气象要素对PM_(10)浓度的固有影响属性不会随着时间的推移而发生明显改变,PM_(10)污染物来源、城市化与产业结构对PM_(10)浓度的影响随着时间的推移影响程度减弱。An evaluation index system of the PM10 concentration was constructed based on the data of atmospheric quality, meteorological elements and urban development. The evaluation index system consists of three index layers and 25 indexes. The entropy method was used to evaluate the level of development of PM10 and the influencing factors. The grey correlation model was used to explore the correlation between the PM10 and influencing factors and index layers. The following conclusions were drawn： （1） The influ- encing factors of PM10 could be divided into two types according to their change trend during 2006 -2015 in Urumqi city. （2） The weight of urbanization and industrial structure index layer was the largest （ wi = 0. 4181 ） ; the weight of PM10 pollution sources index layer was the second （wi =0. 3879） ; the weight of the air quality index and meteorological elements layer was the least （wi = 0. 1941 ）. （3） In the 28 inde- xes, living garbage processing, construction area of the building and industrial production moderately correlated. The other indexes and three index layers strongly correlated. （4） The correlation degree between PM,0 concentration and air quality index and meteorological elements did not significantly change over time, the correlation between PM10 and urbanization and industrial structure, PM10 pollution sources decreased with the time. Therefore, the influencing factors of PM10 can be analyzed and evaluated by the grey correlation model.

关 键 词：熵值法 灰色关联模型 PM10浓度影响因素 乌鲁木齐市 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]