非洲经济奇迹:驱动因素与长期增长  

Economic Miracle in Africa: Driving Factors and Long-Term Growth

作　　者：刘晨 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2018年第1期117-155,160,共39页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：20世纪90年代以来,非洲国家经济逐渐恢复并实现迅速增长,被称为"非洲增长奇迹"。非洲经济增长的主要原因可分为外部环境和内部因素中的多个方面,包括战争和冲突持续减少、政治稳定性显著增强;各国施行的宏观经济改革措施提升了非洲经济的增长潜力;国际市场大宗商品价格上升和资本流入增加改善了非洲国家的贸易和融资条件等。在需求方面,非洲中等收入国家的消费增长、低收入和贫困国家的投资尤其是公共投资增加、石油出口国的出口上升成为短期增长的驱动因素;供给方面,劳动力从农业向有较高生产率的服务业转移促进了劳动生产率的提升和经济增长。但是,从长期发展因素来看,非洲国家制造业仍然滞后,并未实现制造业驱动的结构转型。由于初始条件不同,非洲国家在经济转型进程中将比亚洲国家面临更多困难。更重要的是,资本积累过低是长期经济发展的主要障碍,因此实现持续的资本积累增长仍是非洲国家面临的艰巨任务。Since the 1990 s,African economies have gradually recovered and achieved rapid growth,which is called "African Growth Miracle". Based on a number of factors,this article analyzed the main reasons and long-term prospects of economic growth in Africa comprehensively. As far as domestic and international conditions are concerned,the continuing reduction in wars and conflicts and the implementation of macroeconomic reforms by countries have enhanced political and economic stability; the rising commodity prices and increased capital inflows have improved the terms of trade and financing for African countries. On the demand side, the drivers of short-term growth include the consumption growth in middle-income countries, increased investment particularly the public investment in low-income and poor countries,and the export-led growth in oil-exporting countries; on the supply side, the transfer of labor force from agriculture to higher-productivity service promoted the labor productivity and economic growth. In terms of long-term development factors,the proportion of manufacturing industries in African countries remains low,and these countries have not realized the manufacturing-driven structural transformation. Due to the different initial conditions,African countries will face more difficulties than Asian countries in the process of economic transformation. More importantly,the major obstacle to long-term development is the low capital accumulation. Therefore, achieving long-term development remains a daunting task for African countries.

关 键 词：非洲经济 增长奇迹 结构转型 资本积累 非洲制造业 比较经济 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]