农产品重金属超标风险:发生过程与预警防控  

Risk of heavy metal concentration in agricultural product exceeding the safe standard:Occurrence process,forewarning and control

作　　者：郭书海[1,2] 吴波 张玲妍[1,2] 陈能场 GUO Shu-hai;WU Bo;ZHANG Ling-yan;CHEN Neng-chang(Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Contaminated Soil Remediation by Bio-physicochemical Synergistic Process, Shenyang 110016, China;Guangdong Institute of Eco-envi- ronment and Soil Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016 [2]污染土壤生物-物化协同修复技术国家地方联合工程实验室,沈阳110016 [3]广东省生态环境技术研究所,广州510650

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2018年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAD05B03)~~

摘　　要：以土壤重金属为风险源,以农产品为风险受体,从风险发生过程→风险概率预测→风险控制与适宜性评估,对农产品重金属超标问题进行了综合分析。首先采用基于质量标准的四象限分区,分类解析了风险源与受体之间的非线性响应关系;然后通过系统分析农产品重金属超标的发生过程,构建了基于重金属在土壤-作物系统转移与积累的风险发生关系树,刻画了风险发生过程及主要影响因素;再通过贝叶斯分类概率统计方法,提出了农产品重金属超标风险的预警方法;最后,建立了"直角-广义仿射"双坐标系,以此来表征和评估土壤重金属污染现状与修复措施的预期结果,为农产品重金属超标风险管控提供科学依据。In this paper, taking the heavy metal in the soil as risk source and agricultural product as risk receptor, risk of heavy metal concentration in agricultural product exceeding the safe standard was analyzed in aspect of risk occurrence process, risk probability prediction,risk control and suitability assessment. Firstly, through four-quadrant zoning based on quality standards, the nonlinear response relationship between risk source and risk receptor was analyzed. Secondly, by analysis of the risk occurrence process of cadmium content in the agriculture product exceeding the safe standard, the risk occurrence relationship tree was drawn according to the transfer and accumulation of cadmium in the soil-crop system, and the risk occurrence process and major influence factors were clarified. Thirdly, with the classification and probability statistics based Bayes theory, a forewarning method for risk assessment of cadmium content in the agriculture product exceeding the safe standard was proposed. Finally, a ＂rectangular-generalized affine＂ double coordinate system was established in order to assess the soil cadmium pollution and prediction result for remediation. It provides a scientific basis for risk control of cadmium content in agricultural product exceeding the safe standard.

关 键 词：重金属 农产品 风险发生过程 风险关系树 风险概率评估 广义仿射坐标系 

分 类 号：X53[环境科学与工程—环境工程]