产业蜕变视角下产业转型模式选择方法研究——以制造业为例  

Study on the Choosing Method of Industrial Transformation Mode from the Perspective of Industrial Disintegration——A Case Study of Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：任一鑫[1] 李跃[1] 刘丽莹 沈悦 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2018年第1期17-26,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目"产业转型与产业蜕变映射关系及应用研究"(16CJJJ21)

摘　　要：产业蜕变是产业在其发展过程中,由于受到内外环境因素变化的影响而发生量变到质变的过程。研究以产业蜕变为切入点,首先结合已有研究中对产业蜕变的分析,构建产业蜕变影响因素指标体系;然后,构建产业蜕变度和蜕变速率的测度模型;进一步,从产业蜕变与转型可行性和意愿度的因果关系入手,以6个主因子的蜕变度为解释变量、产业转型可行性和意愿度为被解释变量构建了产业转型可行性判别方法和映射模型。在这两个模型构建的基础上,从理论层面和企业应用层面给出了产业不同蜕变阶段最优转型模式选取的思路和方法。研究表明,产业蜕变隐性阶段、半隐性阶段和显性阶段的最优转型模式分别为产业深化模式、多元复合型模式和产业更新模式。Industrial disintegration is the process of quantitative change to qualitative change due to the change of environmental factors both inside and outside during the development of the industry. The study takes industrial disintegration as the starting point and constructs the model of industrial disintegration measurement and the mapping model of industrial transformation and industrial disintegration. Based on the construction of these two models,the ideas and methods for choosing the optimal transition mode in different stages of industry are given from the theoretical level and the enterprise application level. The results show that the transition mode of recessive stage,semi-recessive stage and dominant stage are respectively the deepening mode of industry,multiple compound mode and industry updating mode.

关 键 词：产业转型 产业蜕变 映射关系 判别方法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]