基于风险分析的刘家峡水库防凌调度控制指标设置  

Setting of the Control Index on Ice Prevention Dispatching of Liujiaxia Reservoir Based on the Risk Analysis

作　　者：冉本银 吴成国[2] RAN Benyin;WU Chengguo(Northwest Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Xi＇ an 710048, Shaanxi, China;College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui, China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司西北分部,陕西西安710048 [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2017年第11期91-96,共6页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51679187)~~

摘　　要：通过建立基于投影寻踪聚类的黄河宁夏、内蒙古河段凌灾风险综合评估模型,对防凌期刘家峡水库不同控泄方案进行了凌灾风险评估计算,并由此设置了防凌期刘家峡水库调度关键节点控制指标,最终推荐了防凌期刘家峡水库运用控制方案,上述研究成果可供黄河上游梯级水库防凌调度决策参考。In this paper, the risk assessment of ice disaster about different control and discharge schemes of Liujiaxia reservoir is carried out through establishing a comprehensive assessment model of ice disaster based on the projection pursuit clustering in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia river reaches of the Yellow River. In addition, some suggestions on the setting of important control index of Liujiaxia reservoir operation in the period of ice prevention are put forward , which can be used as reference for the decision-making about ice prevention dispatching of the cascade reservoir on the upper reaches of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：防凌调度 投影寻踪 风险评估 指标设置 刘家峡水库 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]