1961-2015年苏锡常地区极端降水指数变化特征分析  

Characteristics of Change in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou from 1961 to 2015

作　　者：花培 俞芳琴 刘俊[1] 丁楠[1] 高颖会[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京市浦口区水务局,江苏南京211800

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第1期107-110,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41471015)

摘　　要：基于苏锡常地区29个代表雨量站1961-2015年逐日降水资料,选取极端降水量、极端降水频次、极端降水强度和极强降水量4个指数,用滑动秩和检验对极端降水量进行突变检验,并分析研究区内各指数变化趋势和空间分布。结果表明:长时段(1961-2015)中,东南部极端降水量、极端降水频次和极端降水强度总体呈增长趋势,短时段(1981-2015)中,只有极端降水强度总体呈增长趋势。4个指数分布特征基本一致,突变时间主要出现在改革开放后的80年代。苏锡常地区极端降水指数的变化与该地区的城市化有关。Based on the daily precipitation data in 29 representative rainfall stations in Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou from 1961 to 2015,four indexes of extreme precipitation,extreme precipitation frequency,extreme precipitation intensity and extremely strong precipitation are selected. The time mutation of extreme precipitation is studied by the sliding rank sum test. The trend and spatial distribution of the index in the study area is also analyzed. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation,extreme precipitation frequency and extreme precipitation intensity in the southeast showed an increasing trend between 1961 and 2015,only the extreme precipitation intensity showed an increasing trend between 1981 and 2015. The distribution of four indices is basically the same,and the mutation time mainly appeared in the 1980 s after the implementation of reform and opening-up. The characteristics of the extreme precipitation index in Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou are related to their urban cultures.

关 键 词：极端降水指数 苏锡常 趋势分析 突变检验 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]