基于DPSIR模型的县域土地生态安全评价——以安徽省肥东县和涡阳县为例  

Evaluation on Ecological Safety of County Land Based on DPSIR Model:With Feidong County and Guoyang County of Anhui Province as Examples

作　　者：苏子龙[1] 周伟[1] 袁国华[1] 郑娟尔[1] 贾立斌[1] SU Zilong;ZHOU Wei;YUAN Guohua;ZHENG Juaner;JIA Libin(Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, Beijing 101149, China)

机构地区：[1]中国国土资源经济研究院

出　　处：《城市与区域规划研究》2017年第4期175-187,共13页Journal of Urban and Regional Planning

基　　金：国家重点研发专项“土地资产负债表与资源承载力评价技术与应用”(2016YFC0503501);安徽省国土资源环境承载力监测预警机制研究(2014CGFZ3338)项目资助成果

摘　　要：县域经济是我国经济社会发展的基石，其发展模式直接关系到土地生态安全，进而影响土地的可持续利用。为探究不同经济发展模式下县域土地生态安全状况，基于DPSIR（驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应）概念模型，构建土地生态安全评价体系，利用熵权法计算指标权重，以安徽省肥东县和涡阳县为例进行了实证研究。结果表明：2011-2014年肥东县土地生态安全综合指数整体呈现上升趋势，由较不安全升至较安全状态，2015年出现小幅下降，进入临界安全状态；而涡阳县2011-2015年土地生态安全综合指数变化较为平稳，均处于临界安全状态。准则层面，两县在驱动力、压力和状态安全值方面变化趋势存在差异，在影响和响应安全值方面变化趋势相同。指标层面，人口自然增长率、人口密度、森林覆盖率、耕地面积占比等指标是影响两县土地生态安全的主要因素。文章基于上述研究结果从保护土地生态安全角度提出相关调控对策建议，以期为不同经济发展模式的县域土地生态安全管理提供参考。County economy is the corner- stone of China＇s social and economic development, so its development pattern is directly related to the land ecological safety and in turn affects the sustainable use of land. In order to explore the situation of county land ecological safety under different economic development patterns, based on the DPSIR （driving force-pressure-status-influence-response ） conceptual model, this paper builds a land ecological safety evaluation system and works out the index weights hy using the entropy weight method. Feidong County and Guoyang County in Anhui Province are taken as examples for case studies. The results show that the land ecological safety composite index of Feidong County had a rising trend from 2011 to 2014, with the status changing from less safe to safer, and it entered the critical safety status when the index had a slight drop in 2015. In contrast, in the period of 2011 to 2015, the land ecological safety composite index of Guoyang County was stable and in critical safety status. In terms of criteria, there were differences in driving force, pressure, and status safety values between the two counties, while a similar trend in impact and response safety values. In terms of indexes, the natural population growth rate, population density, forest coverage rate, and ratio of cultivated land were main factors influencing the land ecological safety of the two counties. Based on the above research re- sults, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of protecting land ecological safety, so as to provide reference for the land ecological safety management in county areas with different economic development patterns.

关 键 词：土地生态安全 DPSIR 经济发展模式 县域 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]