海外重大基础设施投资项目风险识别与评估框架  

Framework for Risk Identification and Evaluation of Overseas Major Infrastructure Investment Projects

作　　者：王卓甫[1] 安晓伟[1] 丁继勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2018年第1期7-12,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71402045);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2016B46614;2014B01314)

摘　　要：随着"走出去"和"一带一路"战略的实施,我国企业投资海外重大基础设施项目在不断增多,既有成功的经验,也有失败的教训,但均在告诫人们必须重视项目风险。在前人研究的基础上,以项目为本位,基于投资方视角,从项目东道国政府履行项目合同和实现投资项目目标程度的不确定性两个维度出发分析项目风险管理;将海外重大基础设施投资项目目标风险分成建设和运营两个阶段分别考量,从项目投入和产出两个方面,识别它们的风险因素,并分析它们的内在联系,进而构建海外重大基础设施投资项目风险因素表;合理定义项目东道国政府和项目目标风险,构建定性和定量相结合的评估框架,为深入研究海外重大基础设施投资项目风险评估打下了基础。With the implement of "Going out " and "one Belt one Road " strategies,large-scale infrastructure projects invested by enterprises of China are continually increasing. Both successful experiences and lessons of failure in the process warn us that we have to pay attention to the risk of investment projects. Based on previous research and from the perspective of investors,this paper takes the project as the main body,and analyzes risks of investment projects in two dimensions of host government and project objectives. The objective goal risks of overseas major infrastructure investment projects are divided into risks in construction and those in operation,and they are considered separately. The risk factors are identified in the two aspects of project input and output,and the connections between them are analyzed to establish a risk factor table of overseas major infrastructure investment projects. The proper definitions of host government and objective goal risks of projects,and the establishment of a framework for qualitative and quantitative evaluation are considered to lay the foundation for further study of the risk assessment of oversea major infrastructure investment projects.

关 键 词：基础设施 海外投资 风险识别 风险评估 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]