中国东北初夏降水与冷涡活动及西亚春季陆面热力异常的可能联系  

Possible linkages among early summer precipitation in Northeast China,cold vortex and spring land surface thermal anomaly over West Asia

作　　者：陈海山[1,2] 杨静秋 张莞昕 滕方达 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [3]沈阳中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110001

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2018年第1期10-16,共7页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41625019;41230422)

摘　　要：基于国家气候中心提供的站点降水资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)再分析ERAInterim陆面温度资料及美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)位势高度、风场再分析资料,采用相关、合成、线性回归等多种统计分析方法,初步探讨了东北初夏降水与西亚前期(春季)陆面热力异常的可能联系。研究发现,东北初夏降水与前期春季西亚地区的陆面温度存在较为密切的联系,西亚地区(30~70°E,25~45°N)陆面春季异常增暖,对应东北初夏降水减少,尤其是东北地区东北部降水减少显著。进一步分析表明,西亚地区春季陆面异常增暖能引起初夏贝加尔湖附近地区反气旋性异常环流,导致初夏东北冷涡活动偏弱,东北初夏降水减弱。上述结果表明,西亚春季的陆面热力异常可以为东北初夏降水预测提供有效的前期信号。Based on the station precipitation data in Northeast China provided by the National Climate Center of China,the ERA-Interim land surface temperature reanalysis data provided by the ECMWF,the geopotential height and wind speed reanalysis data from the NCEP/NCAR,the possible relationship between early summer precipitation in Northeast China and spring land surface thermal anomaly over West Asia is investigated by using statistical methods including correlation,composite analysis and linear regression.Results indicate that early summer rainfall in Northeast China bears a close relationship with spring land surface temperature over West Asia（ 25—45°N,30—70°E）.The warming of land surface caninduce abnormal anticyclonic circulation at the mid and upper levels of troposphere around the Lake of Baikal in the early summer,causing weakened cold vortex and decreased early summer precipitation in Northeast China,especially in the northeast part. The above results suggest that spring land surface thermal condition over West Asia can provide prediction of early summer precipitation over Northeast China in advance.

关 键 词：东北初夏降水 东北冷涡 陆面热力异常 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]