运用GARP生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区  

Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of Pomacea canliculate in China based on the GARP ecological niche modeling

作　　者：王奕晨 郑鹏[1] 潘文斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学环境与资源学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期21-25,共5页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福州大学科技发展基金资助项目(2013-XY-10)

摘　　要：通过整理相关文献资料,得到福寿螺在中国已知的分布点数据,运用GARP生态位模型,基于点位数据和刀切法筛选出合适的环境因子以预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区.然后运用温度作为限制因子对结果进行修正,并使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对结果进行精度检验.研究结果表明:福寿螺在中国的适生区主要集中在海南、广东、福建、广西、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州和湖北等省和自治区,还有四川省东南部、江苏省南部,以及安徽省、云南省和陕西省绝大部分地区,总面积为207.9万km^2,占全国面积的21.58%;边缘适生区主要在四川省的中部和陕西省的南部,占全国面积的0.43%;低适生区主要在我国的北部地区,占全国面积的77.99%.预测结果的ROC曲线下的面积(AUC)为0.9,说明结果的准确度较高.To predict potential suitable distribution area so as to prevent and control Pomacea canaliculata effectively,environmental factors about its distribution were screened according to point data of its current distribution by knife-cut method. Then P.canalicula- ta potential distribution was predicted by GARP ecological niche modeling, whose results was subsequently revised with temperature being the limiting factor. At last, receiver operating characteristic （ R0C） cur^^e was used to evaluate the precision of the revised re-sults. The results showed that the suitable areas mainly included Hainan Province,Guangdong Province,Fujian Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Zhejiang Province, Jiangxi Province, Hunan Province, Guizhou Province and Hubei Province, as well as most part of Anhui Province,Yunnan Province and Shaanxi Province,the southeastern part of Sichuan Province and the southern part of Jiangsu Province, adding up to a total area of 2.079 million km2,accounting for 21.58% of national area. The marginal suit-able areas were mainly in the middle of Sichuan Province and the southern part of Shaanxi Province, accounting for 0.43% of nation-al area. Low fitness area was mainly in the northern region of China, accounting for 77.99% of national area. The area under curve （R0C） was 0.9,indicating that the accuracy of the prediction results was very high.

关 键 词：福寿螺 潜在适生区 地理信息系统 GARP生态位模型 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]