气候变化下三明市主要针叶树种潜在地理分布的预测  

Prediction of geographical distribution of main conifer species under climate change in Sanming City

作　　者：张今朝[1,2] 刘健 余坤勇[1,2] 曾琪 郑文英[1,2] 艾婧文 上官莎逸[3,2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学林学院 [2]福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室,福建福州350002 [3]福建农林大学园林学院

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期74-81,共8页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省高校产学研合作项目(2015N5010);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41401385)

摘　　要：以三明市主要针叶树种(杉木和马尾松)为研究对象,利用树种分布点数据和19个气候环境数据,基于MaxEnt模型模拟现实气候条件下杉木和马尾松在三明市的适宜分布区,以及未来气候变化情景下(2050和2070年)杉木和马尾松分布格局的变化,以受试者工作特征曲线评价模型结果,并运用刀切法确定影响杉木和马尾松分布的主要环境因子.结果表明:MaxEnt模型预测结果精度较高(AUC值均大于0.9),最湿季降水量、最冷季降水量、等温性是限制其分布的主要气候因子.杉木和马尾松的适宜生境主要分布在研究区的中西部和中部,面积分别占研究区的39.00%和31.63%;在未来气候情景下,杉木和马尾松的生境分布有所变化:到2050年,适宜生境面积分别减少10.06%和6.35%;到2070年,适宜生境面积略有增加,分别增长1.67%和0.65%.To obtain the suitable habitat region for the main coniferous species, including Chinese f ir and Pinus massoniana in San-ming City, curent distribution data for the 2 species and 19 climatic factors were stimulated by MaxEnt model, also to work out dis-tribution patterns in 2050 and 2070. Then prediction results were evaluated by receiver characteristic cur^^e and dominant climatic factors were evaluated by knife cutting method. The result showed that prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was overall high, with AUC values being greater than 0.9. The dominant climatic factors were precipitations in both the wettest and coldest seasons, and isother^nality which limited distributions of Chinese f ir and Pinus massoniana. The central and western region and central part of the study area were the most suitable habitats for Chinese f ir and Pinus massoniana, with percentage of area reaching 39% and 31.63%, respectively. From now to 2050, suitable habitat areas for Chinese f ir and Pinus massoniana decreased by 10.06% and 6.35%, re-spectively by 2050. While from now to 2070, suitable habitat areas slightly increased by 1.67% and 0.65%, respectively.

关 键 词：针叶树种 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 适宜性 

分 类 号：S791.27[农业科学—林木遗传育种]