东亚经济周期协动性、产业内贸易结构及国际政策协调  

Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia,Intra-industry Trade and International Policy Coordination

作　　者：李林玥 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《金融评论》2018年第1期28-39,共12页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503284)的支持

摘　　要：本文采用多维度面板回归分析法证明产业内贸易对经济周期同步性具有正向且重要的作用。同时,本文还通过实证分析比较了产业间贸易和产业内贸易的差异。实证研究结果表明,经济周期协动性所受到的影响更多是来自产业内贸易渠道而不是贸易总量本身。随着亚洲国家间贸易一体化程度的加深,国家之间的经济周期同步性会通过贸易传导而加大。产业间贸易使专业化分工更加精细,这将导致经济周期同步性的降低,然而,与此相反,产业内贸易的加深则可能使经济周期同步性增强。此外,作为衡量最优货币区的标准之一,经济周期同步性的重要性很可能言过其实。The article indicates that the international co-movements of business cycles are influenced more through the intra-industry trade channel than by the total volume of trade itself. As trade integration among Asian countries increases,business cycle synchronization among these countries is expected to expand through trade transmission. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization will induce less synchronized business cycles,while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Moreover,it finds that increased business cycle synchronization,as one of the optimum currency area criteria,is overemphasized.

关 键 词：经济周期同步性 产业内贸易 相关性 国际政策协调 

分 类 号：F131[经济管理—世界经济]