大江大河防洪关键技术问题与挑战  

Problems and challenges on flood control for large rivers

作　　者：刘宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]水利部

出　　处：《水利学报》2018年第1期19-25,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化、人类活动对自然干扰程度加剧,以及防洪区人口和社会财富不断增长,变化环境下江河防洪技术面临新的难题。本文分析了大江大河防洪中面临的两个关键性问题:"守与弃"与"蓄与泄",及其面临的挑战,并针对性地提出了支撑大江大河防洪决策的关键技术,包括:优化模型构建与多目标求解技术,多目标均衡决策技术,以及支撑洪水"蓄泄"过程动态演算的流域高精度水文预报技术、河流水沙动力学模拟技术等。结合典型案例进一步对相关技术的运用进行了实证。Climate change combined with more frequent human activities have strongly disturbed the natural water cycle. In addition, the increasing population and social wealth in flood protection zone caused new challenges for flood control for large rivers under the changing environment. This article reviewed the chal- lenges that the flood control for large rivers is facing the two key challenges as ＂retain or release＂ and ＂protect or abandon＂ problems. Furthermore, some key techniques utilized for decision making were present- ed, including： building of optimization model, multi-objective problem solving, balance decision-making techniques, as well as high precision prediction of basin runoff and sediment dynamical simulation support- ed by dynamic calculation of flood ＂retain or release＂. In the end, the application of related technologies was further verified with typical case studies.

关 键 词：大江大河 防洪决策 蓄与泄 守与弃 多目标 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]