产品开发中任务工期不确定条件下耦合集求解模型分析  

Research on Coupled Set Solving Model Under Uncertain Condition of Task Duration in Product Development

作　　者：田启华 梅月媛 王涛 杜义贤 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学机械与动力学院

出　　处：《机械设计与研究》2018年第1期172-176,共5页Machine Design And Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51475265)

摘　　要：针对产品开发中任务工期的不确定性，运用三点估计法估算任务工期的正态分布曲线和置信区间，并结合二阶段迭代模型，建立工期不确定条件下具有资源最优配置特性的耦合集求解模型，通过求解该模型得出在最佳的任务分配和资源分配情况下任务完成时间的分布情况。该方法通过某门座起重机变幅系统的开发实例应用分析进行了有效验证，能为实际产品开发提供一定的指导依据。Aiming at the uncertainty of task duration in product development, the normal distribution curve and the confidence interval of task duration are estimated by using the three-point estimating method. The coupled set solving model with resource optimization configuration properties is established with the two-stage iterative model. The distribution of task completion time under the condition of optimal allocation of tasks and resources is obtained by solving this model. The method is effectively verified in the development of a portal crane＇ s luffing system, and it can provide a guidance for the practical product development.

关 键 词：产品开发 任务工期 不确定条件 资源最优配置 二阶段迭代模型 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]