影子银行对我国房地产市场的影响:基于监管套利视角  

The Impact of Shadow Banking on China's Real Estate Market:An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Regulatory Arbitrage

作　　者：马亚明[1] 贾月华 侯金丹 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院,天津300222 [2]天津财经大学大公信用管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2018年第1期39-48,71,共11页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AJY021)

摘　　要：从监管套利视角分析我国影子银行的业务模式以及其进入房地产市场的渠道,建立带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,实证检验影子银行、房地产投资水平、房价以及房地产库存量四者之间的动态关系。结果表明:整体而言,影子银行推动了房地产投资规模的扩张,增加了商品房的供给,从而间接提高了房地产库存水平;影子银行对房价的影响具有明显时变特征,两者的相关性时正时负,因此影子银行的扩张并不必然会导致房价的上涨;房地产市场的快速发展对影子银行产生了持续的资金需求。建议相关部门完善监管措施,从资金来源方面限制影子银行进入房地产市场,合理引导影子银行的资金流向,同时继续深化金融体制改革,建立市场化的利率形成机制,鼓励并创造条件推进房地产开发商等中小企业探求多元化的融资模式。From the perspective of regulatory arbitrage,this paper analyzes the business model of shadow banking in China and its access to the real estate market by establishing a TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility to test the dynamic relationship between shadow banking,real estate investment,housing prices and real estate. The results show that： on the whole,the shadow banking has promoted the expansion of real estate investment scale and expanded the supply of commercial housing,thus indirectly raising the inventory level of real estate; the influence of shadow banking on housing prices has obvious time-varying characteristics,and the correlation between the two is not fixed,so the expansion of the shadow banking does not necessarily lead to the rising of house prices; the rapid development of the real estate market needs funding from shadow banking. It recommends that related departments should improve regulatory measures from the source of funds to limit the shadow banking into the real estate market,guide the capital flow of shadow banking reasonably,continue to deepen the financial system reform,establish a market-based interest rate formation mechanism,and encourage and create conditions to promote real estate developers and other small enterprises explore a wide range of financing models.

关 键 词：影子银行 影子银行体系 监管套利 房地产市场 房地产投资 房价 

分 类 号：F832.45[经济管理—金融学] F822.0