杠杆率水平、经济结构转型与“债务—通缩”风险  

Leverage Ratio,Economic Restructuring and “Debt-Deflation”Risk

作　　者：纪敏[1] 李宏瑾[1] 杨小玄 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局 [2]中国人民银行营业管理部

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2018年第1期15-27,共13页Macroeconomics

基　　金：中国金融论坛课题组承担的课题“通过供给侧结构性改革有效化解高杠杆风险——兼论杠杆率水平和结构的分析框架”的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文在理论分析的基础上,通过跨国面板数据的经验研究,对杠杆率、经济增长、经济结构转型的关系进行了深入讨论。理论分析表明,杠杆率、债务投资效率、投资率与经济增长密切相关。经过长达三十年高速增长之后,传统的高储蓄支撑的投资导向增长模式难以为继,过于依赖投资主导的增长模式则不利于经济发展。同时也要看到,虽然降低杠杆率和投资率能够促进经济增长,但如果债务效率下降过快,即使GDP能够保持一定增速,但杠杆率仍可能上升较快,由此也可能引发融资成本上升而带来债务流动性风险,最终也会引发“债务—通缩”风险,提高债务效率对债务可持续性和经济持续健康发展具有非常重要的作用。对41个经济体的跨国面板数据经验研究充分支持了这一点,对发达经济体和新兴发展中经济体的分样本回归结果再次表明,各变量关系是稳健可靠的。On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper discusses in depth the relationship among leverage ratio, economic growth and economic restructuring through the empirical study of cross - border panel data. Theoretical analysis shows that the leverage ratio, debt investment efficiency, investment rate and economic growth are closely related. After thirty years of rapid growth, the traditional investmentled growth model supported by high savings is unsustainable. Too reliance on the invest- ment- led growth model is not conducive to economic development. At the same time, it has also been observed that while reducing the leverage ratio and investment rate can promote economic growth, if the debt efficiency drops too fast, the leverage rate may rise rapidly even if GDP can maintain a certain growth rate, which may also lead to an increase in financing costs And bringing the risk of debt liquidity will eventually trigger the risk of ＂debt- deflation＂ and raising debt efficiency will play a very important role in the sustainability of debt and the sustained and healthy economic development. This is fully supported by the empirical study of the cross - border panel data of 41 economies, and the sub - sample regression of advanced economies and emerging economies shows once again that the relationship between the variables is robust and reliable.

关 键 词：杠杆率 经济增长 经济结构转型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831.51[经济管理—世界经济]