基于恩格尔曲线的中国CPI偏差估计  

Estimation of China’s CPI Bias Based on Engel Curves

作　　者：曾先峰[1,2] 章洁 

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学经济金融学院,西安710128 [2]西安外国语大学资源环境与产业经济学研究中心,西安710128

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第3期10-14,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章基于Hamilton-Costa的理论模型,使用1995—2014年30个省市的统计数据,估算了中国CPI偏差。研究结果表明,以1995年为基期公布的CPI定基价格指数与居民的生活成本之间存在向上偏差,偏差幅度为0.09～0.51个百分点之间,年均CPI偏差约0.398个百分点。这表明官方CPI被低估了,而真实的收入和消费支出被高估了。This paper, based on Hamilton-Costa theoretical model, employs statistics of 30 provinces from 1995 to 2014 to estimate China＇ s CPI bias. The study result shows that there is an upward bias between the residents＇ living cost and the an- nounced fixed hase price index CPI with the year 1995 as the base period, and the magnitude of the hias is from 0.09% to 0.51%, and the average annual CPI bias about 0.398 percentage points, which indicates that the official CPI is underestimated, while the real income and consumption expenditure is overestimated.

关 键 词：恩格尔系数 CPI偏差 生活成本指数 可支配收入 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]