清远市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟  

System Dynamics Model and Simulation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Qingyuan

作　　者：杜欢欢[1] 邱静[1] 李传刚[2] 赵璧奎[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东广州510635 [2]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2017年第12期9-13,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(编号:2011-06;2017-13)

摘　　要：针对清远市因经济飞速发展造成的水资源承载力的显著变化和"十三五"规划纲要中水资源相关指标的巨大压力,在综合考虑水资源需求、水污染程度和水资源供给等影响因素的情况下,建立了清远市水资源承载的系统动力学模型(SD),通过该模型设计了四种发展方案对清远市"十三五"期间的水资源承载力进行预测和分析,并进一步分析比较得出一个经济和环境协调发展的最优方案,从而为决策者提供了科学的决策依据。Regarding the significant changes of the water resources carrying capacity caused by industrial transfer in Qingyuan and the huge pressure of related index in the “ 13th Five-year” plan,this paper establishes a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Qingyuan considering water demand,water pollution degree,water supply and other analysis the water resources carrying capacity of Qingyuan in 2015 -2020 through designing four kinds of development scheme,and in order to obtain the best plan which is coordinated development of economy and environmeas to provide a scientific decision for decision makers.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 系统动力学 模拟与预测 清远市 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]