共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测  

Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China

作　　者：姜彤[1,2] 赵晶[1] 曹丽格[2] 王艳君[1] 苏布达[1,2,3] 景丞[3] 王润[4] 高超 JIANG Tong;ZHAO Jing;CAO Li-Ge;WANG Yan-Jun;SU Bu-Da;JING Cheng;WANG Run;GAO Chao(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China;Department of Geography ＆ Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理科学学院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [4]湖北大学资源和环境学院,武汉430062 [5]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波315211

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第1期50-58,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701);中国清洁发展机制(CDM)基金赠款项目;中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化影响综合评估"(CCSF201722)

摘　　要：基于中国历次人口和经济普查及逐年统计年鉴,率定柯布道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型的参数,依据共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架情景,构建2020—2100年中国31个省(区、市)经济变化格点(0.5°×0.5°)数据库。未来中国经济呈现如下特点:(1)沿可持续路径(SSP1)和不均衡路径(SSP4),GDP将呈现先增后降趋势,峰值出现在2070—2080年;沿中间路径(SSP2)和化石燃料为主的发展路径(SSP5),GDP则呈现持续增长趋势;区域竞争路径(SSP3)下,2050年以后GDP增长处于停滞状态。(2)无论采用何种路径,2020年前GDP仍旧保持6.0%左右的增速,随后增速均低于5.0%并出现放缓或停滞,甚至负增长态势。(3)社会经济发展政策对中国分省经济增长产生直接影响。2020年代SSP1~SSP5路径下江苏、广东和山东省GDP总量位列前三;2090年代,SSP1和SSP5路径下广东、山东和江苏省GDP总量依旧位列前三;SSP2路径下,浙江位列第二;SSP3路径下,河南跻身前三;SSP4路径下,排名前三省份为广东、江苏和浙江省。(4)2020年代SSP1、SSP2和SSP5路径下,山东、浙江等省GDP增速超过6.0%,SSP3和SSP4路径下仅广东和浙江省GDP增速可维持5.0%左右,个别省还出现负增长;2090年代各省GDP增速均降至不足1.0%。Based on national demographic and economic census and annual statistical yearbooks, this paper focused on the projection of national and provincial economy in China during 2020-2100, using Cobb-Douglas model under the fve shared socioeconomic pathways （SSPs）. The results show that： （1） national economy will keep rising up to 2070-2080 and then decline under sustainability （SSP1） and inequality （SSP4）, while GDP will continue to grow under middle of the road （SSP2） and fossil-fueled development （SSP5） and stagnate after 2040 under regional rivalry （SSP3）. （2） GDP can maintain about 6.0% growth rate before 2020s under all SSPs, but will slow down to less than 5.0% afterwards and may stagnate or even show negative growth. （3） The social and economic development policies have direct impacts on the provincial economic growth. GDP at the Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shandong provinces ranks in the top three under SSP1～ SSP5 in 2020s. In 2090s, provinces ranks in the top three keep consistent with 2020s under SSP1 and SSP5, but Zhejiang will rank the second under SSP2, Henan enters the top three under SSP3, and the top three provinces will be changed as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang under SSP4. （4） As for growth rate of GDP, Shandong and Zhejiang can stay above 6.0% under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 in 2020s, only Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces can maintain about 5.0% and some provinces might show negative growth under SSP3 and SSP4. In 2090s, all provincial GDP growth rate will be less than 1.0%.

关 键 词：共享社会经济路径(SSPs) 柯布道格拉斯预测模型 经济预测 分省 中国 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]