气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架  

Impacts of climate change on transboundary water resources and adaptation management framework

作　　者：匡洋[1] 李浩[1] 夏军[2] 杨泽川[3] KUANG Yang;LI Hao;XIA Jun;YANG Ze-Chuan(Changjiang River Scientifc Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;The International Economic ＆ Technical Cooperation and Exchange Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会长江科学院国际河流研究所,武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [3]水利部国际经济技术合作交流中心,北京100053

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第1期67-76,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279140);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目(CKSF2017033/GJ)

摘　　要：气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择。梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序。通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段。该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展。Global climate change increases the possibility of disputes in international rivers. Avoiding such problems and effectively navigating the threats imposed by climate change will require substantial adaption measures and broader cooperation among the riparian countries in international river basins, while pursuing sustainable development. This paper reviews progress of studies in this field, and finds that the key factor of adaptive management is to establish a set of procedures for scientific assessment. Therefore, an adaptation assessment and management framework applied to impacts of climate change is developed. It includes qualitative description and analysis of the international river basins, semi-quantitative analyses of the potential impacts of future climate change and adaptive capacity across the basins, quantitative analysis of cost-beneft and assessment of adaptation options. This paper provides an effective framework tool and methodology for proposing more targeted adaption measures to combat climate change in international river basins.

关 键 词：气候变化 跨境水资源 适应性管理 评估框架 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]