气候变化背景下的洪涝风险稳健决策方法评述  

Review for robust decision theories in reducing the flood risk under climate change background

作　　者：胡恒智[1,2] 顾婷婷[3] 田展[1] HU Heng-Zhi;GU Ting-Ting;TIAN Zhan(Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China;Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200030, China;Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center, Hangzhou 310017, China)

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]上海师范大学,上海200000 [3]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第1期77-85,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671113;51761135024;41371110;41401661)

摘　　要：分析了深度不确定性内涵及其特点,包括情景不确定、决策后果不确定和决策方案不确定,指出了传统洪涝风险决策方法过于依赖于气候变化预测结果,未能充分考虑深度不确定性及提供稳健决策。给出了国际上处理深度不确定性的稳健决策方法理论基础,并介绍了被广泛应用于洪涝风险领域的鲁棒决策、信息差距及适应对策路径3种稳健决策方法。对比分析发现,鲁棒决策法有完备的适应措施定量评估体系但计算量大且不易理解;信息差距法可解决不能以概率表式的不确定性问题,而未考虑适应对策的失效情景;适应对策路径法提供可视化的决策路径,未能充分考虑社会经济的不确定性。提出未来可综合鲁棒决策和适应对策路径优点,为减少不确定性、降低洪涝灾害风险、制定适应气候变化策略提供参考。This paper analyzes the essence of the deep uncertainties and its characteristic, which consists of scenario uncertainty, consequence uncertainty and alternative uncertainty, and points out the traditional “predict-then-act” risk assessment theories depends on the result of climate prediction leading to its incapable of dealing with deep uncertainties and providing robust decision. The theoretical basis of robust decision and three widely applied methods： Robust Decision Making, Info-Gap Decision Theory and Dynamic Adaptative Policy Pathway are introduced. The paper concludes that the Robust Decision Making embraces a full consideration of adaptation measures while is hard to understand with huge computation; Info-gap Decision Theory addresses on uncertainties which cannot be conveyed in probability but gives less consideration on the scenarios that the adaptation measures failed to meet the target; and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway provides visualized solutions of adaptation pathway but with less consideration on social-economic uncertainties. As a result, the paper proposes a new idea of integrating the Robust Decision Making with Adaptation Pathway, which is able to deliver visualized solutions pathway to support the future decision making.

关 键 词：气候变化适应 深度不确定性 洪涝风险 稳健决策方法 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467