粮食产量对耕地数量敏感度的时空差异及政策启示  

Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity of the Sensitivity of Grain Yield on Cultivated Land and Its Policy Implications

作　　者：柯新利 唐兰萍 廖平凡 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北科技学院资源环境科学与工程学院,湖北咸宁437100

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2018年第1期33-42,共10页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(13CGL092);国家自然科学基金(41371113;41101098);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2662017PY063)

摘　　要：利用1990—2014年耕地和粮食产量统计数据,构建粮耕敏感度反映粮食产量对耕地数量变化的响应关系,探索耕地数量变化对粮食产量影响的时空差异,为优化我国耕地资源的空间配置和制定合理的耕地利用政策提供依据。结果表明:(1)耕地数量是影响我国粮食产量的重要因素,但在不同经济社会发展阶段,全国耕地总数量对粮食总产量影响程度存在阶段性差异,我国的耕地数量变化对粮食产量变化影响程度的变化经历了剧烈-平稳-剧烈的过程;各省(市、区)耕地数量对粮食产量影响程度也存在差异性,我国东部、中部、西部的平均粮耕敏感度分别为2.52、-5.96、0.81。(2)耕地数量对粮食产量的影响在不同省(市、区)之间存在区域差异性。1990—1995年,我国粮耕敏感度区域差异较小;1996—2000年、2001—2005年东部地区粮食产量对耕地数量变化的敏感度普遍提高,各省(市、区)之间的粮耕敏感度差异加大;2006—2010年我国粮耕敏感度区域差异明显变小;2011—2014年,影响粮食产量的因素更加多元化。Using the statistical data of cultivated land and grain yield from 1990 to 2014 to construct the sensitivity of grain yield on cultivated land to reflect the response of grain yield to the change of cultivated land quantity,and to explore the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the change of cultivated land quantity on grain yield.To optimize the spatial allocation of cultivated land resources and provide a reasonable basis for cultivated land use policy.The results show that:(1)the number of cultivated land is an important factor affecting the grain yield in China,but there are some differences in the impact of the total amount of cultivated land on the total grain yield in different stages of economic and social development,and the change in the extent of the change in the number of cultivated land in China has experienced a severe-smooth-violent process;the impact of the number of cultivated land in various provinces(cities and districts)on the grain yield is also different,the average grain yield sensitivity on cultivated land of eastern,central and western China was 2.52,-5.96 and 0.81.(2)the impact of the number of cultivated land on grain yield has regional difference between different provinces(cities,districts).In 1990-1995,the regional difference of the sensitivity of grain yield on cultivated land was relatively small.In 1996-2000 and 2001-2005,the sensitivity of grain yield on cultivated land in the eastern region was generally increased,and the difference of the sensitivity of grain yield on cultivated land in different provinces(cities,districts)was increased.The regional difference of the sensitivity of grain yield on cultivated land was significantly smaller in 2006-2010.In 2011-2014,the factors influencing grain yield are more diversified,and the grain yield is integrated by material input,land use and policy change factors.

关 键 词：耕地数量 粮食产量 粮耕敏感度 时空差异 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]