气候变化下汉江流域虚拟水贸易分析  

Analysis of Virtual Water Trade in the Hanjiang Basin under Climate Change

作　　者：王乐 郭生练[1] 刘德地[1] 洪兴骏[1] 李梦雨 侯雨坤 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水文》2018年第1期14-20,40,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51539009;51379148)

摘　　要：探讨气候变化下未来虚拟水贸易,为流域水资源合理配置研究提供了一种新的思路。本文在计算历史基准年2010s汉江流域主要作物虚拟水含量及贸易量的基础上,应用BCC-CSM1.1气候模式和SDSM模型,分析预测三种代表性浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景)下未来水平年2030s汉江流域内三大省份(湖北、陕西和河南省)7种主要农作物的虚拟水含量以及贸易量结果。结果表明:在三种气候变化情景下,2030s汉江流域主要农作物虚拟水含量基本上较2010s均减小;气候变化对农产品耗水结构影响较小;气候变化对虚拟水净流入量为正反馈作用,增强了经济增长对虚拟水净流入量的增多作用。在未来虚拟水贸易量分析中,不能仅考虑经济增长所带来的影响,必须同时考虑气候变化的影响。Virtual water trade provides a new way for rational water resources allocation under climate change. In this paper, seven main crop products＂ virtual water content and trade were estimated both for current 2010s and 2030s in the three provinces （Hubei, Shanxi, Henan） in the Hanjiang basin, in which the climate model （BCC-CSM 1.1 ） and statistical downscaling model （SDSM）were used to predict future climatic fac tors under three representative concentration pathways （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios）. The results show that virtual water content of major crops in 2030s decreases basically than that in 2010s and climate change has little influence on water consumption structure of these crop products. Furthermore, climate change can bring about positive feedback effects on the net virtual water flow and strengthen the increasing effect caused by economic growth. It is important to consider the impacts of climate change during the analysis of the virtual water trade in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 虚拟水贸易 BCC—CSM1.1气候模式 SDSM模型 汉江流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]