京津冀平原区地下水水位变化主导因素的定量识别研究  

Quantitative Identification of Major Factors Affecting Groundwater Change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

作　　者：李雪[1,2] 叶思源 宋凡[3] 周鹏鹏 

机构地区：[1]国土资源部油气资源和环境地质重点实验室,青岛海洋地质研究所,山东青岛266071 [2]海洋国家实验室海洋矿产资源评价与探测技术功能实验室,山东青岛266071 [3]水利部信息中心(水文水资源监测预报中心),北京100053 [4]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《水文》2018年第1期21-27,57,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：青岛市博士后应用资助项目(2015310);重点研发专项政府间合作项目(2016yee0109600);中国地质调查局项目(DD20160144)

摘　　要：自20世纪60年代以来,京津冀平原区地下水水位持续下降,制约着京津冀一体化的发展。为了识别地下水水位下降的主导因素,定量表征了影响水位动态的气候条件和人类活动的多项指标(包括降水、气温、水面蒸发、工业总产值、粮食产量、人口数量、地表径流量),并采用非参数统计检验方法(M-K法)阐明了近50年来各项指标的演化规律;在掌握研究区自然社会指标及地下水水位的动态规律的基础上,联合运用灰色系统理论和主成分回归分析方法,定量识别了地下水水位变化的主导因素。结果表明,近50年,研究区降水呈现下降趋势,气温呈现显著的上升趋势,水面蒸发呈现增加趋势,工业总产值、粮食产量、人口数量呈现增加趋势,由于山前水库修建引起的地表径流量呈现减小趋势;上述指标变化影响了研究区的地下水水位动态,其中逐渐加剧的人类活动(包括粮食产量、人口数量)构成了研究区地下水水位持续下降的最主要驱动力,对地下水水位下降的贡献度达到60.6%,气候条件对地下水水位下降的影响作用次之,其贡献度为39.4%。The groundwater table in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain has declined continuously since 1960, which has restrieted the integration of development in this region. In the present study, the climatic and anthropogenic factors were represented by natural, economic, social indicators including precipitation, temperature, evaporation, gross value of industrial output, food production, population and surface runoff. The change trend of these indicators in the past 50 years were analyzed using M-K method. Moreover, the major factors that have contributed to groundwater table change were quantitatively identified using grey system theory and principal component regression analysis. The results show that the precipitation and surface runoff decreased due to reservoirs construction in the piedmont have declining trends while temperature, evaporation, industrial output, food production, population all have increasing trends. Furthermore, human activities should be considered as the primary force driving the groundwater table downwith contribution ratio reaching as high as 60.6%, climate change enhanced the declining trend with 39.4% of the contribution ratio.

关 键 词：京津冀平原 非参数统计检验方法(M—K法) 灰关联 主成分回归 地下水位变化 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]