国际干预、强力国家与分离冲突的升级--基于欧亚地区的考察  

The Escalation of International Intervention, Strong State and Separation Conflict: Based on the Investigation of the Conflict in Eurasia

作　　者：孙超[1] 

机构地区：[1]中共江苏省委党校国际问题研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2018年第1期44-68,共25页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：近年来,分离冲突研究已成为政治学和民族学关注的核心议题之一。以往的研究侧重分析分离冲突爆发的原因,对分离冲突的升级机制探讨并不充分。本文结合欧亚地区地缘政治特性,认为国际干预力量和母国的国家权力类型是促进该地区分离冲突升级的重要因素。基于对分离行为体、母国和外部干预力量三个行为体的演绎分析,本文提出欧亚地区分离冲突升级"三角关系"假设,认为获得国际力量支持分离共同体更坚定从母国分离的决心,更倾向于母国对抗爆发分离冲突。而强力国家的母国更倾向于采取武力手段解决分离冲突。分离共同体与强力母国之间对抗将加速分离冲突的升级。本文选取4个案例,运用过程追踪的方法对分离冲突升级的"三角关系"假设进行检验,结果修正以上假说,认为强力国家逻辑是分离冲突升级的核心变量,外部干预作为重要辅助变量发挥作用。分离冲突升级的"三角关系"假设揭示了分离冲突演化的路径,对多民族国家制定合理的政策控制和预防分离冲突的发生具有一定的政策意义。In recent years,the study of separation conflict has become one of the core issues on politics and ethnology. Previous studies have focused on the reasons for the separation conflict,but the discussion on the escalation mechanism of the separation conflict is not sufficient. Based on the geopolitical characteristics of Eurasia,this paper holds that the international intervention force and the national power type of the home state are the important factors to promote the escalation of the conflict in the region. Based on analysis of three actors of the separation behavior bodies, the home state and external intervention force, the paper puts forward Eurasia separation escalation "triangle "assumption,and claims that international power support results in determination for separation of community from the home state,stimulating home state fight against the separation. Powerful states are more likely to use force to resolve the conflict. The confrontation between the detached community and the powerful mother country will accelerate the escalation of the conflict.

关 键 词：欧亚地区 分离冲突升级 国际干预 强力国家 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]