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作 者:李超
出 处:《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2018年第1期136-154,共19页Russian,East European & Central Asian Studies
摘 要:目前中亚地区安全形势虽然在整体上可控并保持稳定,但"伊斯兰国"对中亚安全的潜在挑战仍然存在,一方面,"伊斯兰国"在北高加索地区和阿富汗、巴基斯坦的活动已经给中亚带来了外部的安全压力;另一方面,回国"圣战分子"的潜在威胁,社会矛盾被再次激化的可能以及区域内恐怖组织向其效忠的连锁反应则是"伊斯兰国"带给中亚各国内部的安全挑战。中亚人在"伊斯兰国"外籍武装分子中占据相当比例,这与中亚地区的社会因素、经济因素和"伊斯兰国"对极端主义者的吸引力密切相关。"伊斯兰国"在中亚地区的扩张面临的制衡因素主要包括:中亚周边其他极端组织的牵制,中亚主流社会对"伊斯兰国"政治理念和极端路线的不认可,以及来自中亚国家和区域组织的打击。Although the security situation in Central Asia is generally controllable and stable,the potential challenge of "Islamic state"to security of Central Asia remains. On the one hand,activities of IS in the North Caucasus and Afghanistan,Pakistan have brought external security pressure to the Central Asian region; on the other hand,the potential threat of Jihadists returning from the Middle East,the possible of social contradictions being re-intensified and a chain reaction of regional terrorist organizations pledging allegiance to IS are the internal security challenges for the Central Asian countries from IS. Central Asian people accounting for a large proportion of foreign militants in IS closely related to the social factors, economic factors and the attraction of IS to extremists in Central Asia. The prevention factors of the expansion of the Islamic States in Central Asia include the containment of other extremist groups around Central Asia,the lack of recognition of Central Asian mainstream society to the political ideology and violent extremism of IS as well as the fight from Central Asian countries and regional organizations.
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