南宁市年降水量的加权马尔科夫链预测研究  

Study on the Weighted Markov Chain Prediction of Annual Precipitation in Nanning City

作　　者：杜懿[1] 麻荣永[1] 赵立亚 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《人民珠江》2018年第2期5-7,13,共4页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51369005);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX04)

摘　　要：以南宁市1961—2015年降水量数据为研究对象,通过均值-标准差的分级方法来建立加权马尔科夫链预测模型,并在模型的基础上结合了模糊集理论中的级别特征值,定量给出了各预测年份的年降水量数值。结果显示,该模型的预测效果较好,平均拟合误差控制在2%以内,预计未来两年南宁市处于平水年份的可能性较大,降水量预测值分别为1 384.56、1 221.59 mm。Based on the precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 in Nanning city, this paper established a weighted Markov Chain prediction model by means of the mean-standard deviation method. On the basis of the model, the level eigenvalue of fuzzy set theory was combined,and the annual precipitation value of each predicted year was given quantitatively. The results showed that the model was good,the average fitting error was less than 2%. Besides, it was expected that Nanning city would be in a normal year in next two years, and the annual precipitation forecasts were 1384. 56 mm and 1221. 59 mm.

关 键 词：年降水量 均值-标准差 马尔科夫链 模糊集理论 平水年 南宁市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]