捕获-再捕获方法在济南市死因漏报调查中的应用  

Application of capture-mark-recapture strategy in assesment of the underreporting rate of death cause data in Jinan

作　　者：王莹[1] 张军[1] 刘守钦[1] 杨柳[1] 韩京[1] 周林[1] 

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250021

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2018年第4期659-662,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的了解济南市死亡个案的漏报情况,为制定卫生策略提供依据。方法用捕获一再捕获方法(Capture-Mark-Recapture,CMR),采用分层整群随机抽样的方法,全市各县区根据2015年度各乡镇(街道)死因监测数据质量水平,随机抽取4个乡镇(街道),每个抽中的乡镇(街道)的所有家庭均为调查家庭,调查对象包括调查家庭的所有成员。从当地公安、民政和村(居委会)搜集人口死亡情况,再与死因登记系统已报告的死亡资料进行比对,计算漏报率。结果 2015年济南市死因监测漏报率为9.21%。其中,农村死亡漏报率较城区高2.23%(95%CI:1.17%~3.29%)。0~4岁组较其他年龄组高18.99%(95%CI:9.58%~28.40%)。男性死亡率较女性高0.90%(95%CI:-5.28%~7.08%),无统计学意义。根据死亡漏报率,调整后的2015年济南市居民粗死亡率为731.45/10万,调整后的人均期望寿命是78.33岁。结论济南市死因监测系统死亡漏报情况不容忽视,应规范死因报告管理,逐步提高死因监测数据质量。同时,使用捕获一再捕获方法可以校正低估的粗死亡率和人均期望寿命,适时开展漏报调查,是有效弥补常规监测不足的方法之一。Objective To understand the underreporting situation of the death surveillance system among Jinan residents and to provide the basis for health strategy. Methods Capture-mark-recapture method was used in the underreporting survey. According to the quality of death cause report of all districts and counties in 2015, 4 towns or streets were selected through the Multiphase Random Cluster Sampling Survey, all the families in these towns （streets） were investigation objects.The death data was collected from security bureau and civil affairs bureau were compared with the reopping death data from the National Cause of Death Surveillance,and the under- reporting rate was calculated. Results The underreporting rate was 9.21% in Jinan.The underreporting rate in rural areas was 2.23% （95%CI：1.17%-3.29%） higher than that in urban areas, the group of 0-4 years old was 18.99% （95%CI： 9.58%-28.40% ） higher than other age groups,and the males was 0.90% （95% CI：-5.28%-7.08% ） higher than the females, while there was no significant difference in heterosexual.According to the under-reporting rate of death,the revised death rate was 731.45/100 000 and life expectancy was 78.33 years old of Jinan in 2015. Conduslon The under-reporting of Disease Surveillance System in Jinan was serious. We should regulate the death report management and improve the quality of death monitoring data.The use of CMR may revise the undervalued total death cause mortality and life expectancy. Therefore, the implementation of the timely survey of the underreporting method would be the effective supplementary method for the routine surveillance.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获 死因登记 漏报 期望寿命 

分 类 号：R181.25[医药卫生—流行病学]