桐棉松人工林投资风险评估  

Assessment on the Investment Risk of Pinus massoniana Plantation

作　　者：刘正兴 覃德文[2] 孔令彬 秦武明[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西国营七坡林场,南宁530225 [2]广西大学林学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2018年第2期75-79,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31260176;31070560)

摘　　要：以18年生桐棉松(Pinus massoniana Lamb.)人工林为研究对象,进行项目投资风险评估,旨在为该树种的培育与推广种植提供参考依据。采用经济学的动态序列分析、敏感性分析和静态盈亏分析等方法展开投资项目的风险评估。结果表明,18年生桐棉松人工林内部收益率达41.75%,投资项目财务净现值为64 593.86元/hm2,木材收入123 850.52元/hm2,松脂收入481 493.42元/hm2,利润为316 713.98元/hm2;桐棉松人工林投资项目受松脂价格影响最为敏感。内部收益率在第14年砍伐时最高,为45.26%,达到数量成熟期,亦为最佳轮伐期。总之,桐棉松人工林项目投资经济利润大、风险小,适宜在广西推广种植。The investment risk assessment of 18-year-old Pinus massoniana Lamb. plantation was carried out in order to provide reference for the cultivation and promotion of the tree. The risk assessment of the investment projects was carried out by means of dynamic sequence analysis, sensitivity analysis and static profit and loss analysis. The results showed that the internal rate of yield reached to 41.75% in the 18-year-old P. massoniana plantation. The financial net present value of the investment project was 64 593.86 CNY/hm2, the timber income was 123 850.52 CNY/hm2, the income of the turpentine was481 493.42 CNY/hm2, and the profit was 316 713.98 CNY/hm2. The investment project of P. massoniana plantation is the most sensitive to the price of turpentine. The internal rate of return was the highest in the 14 thyear（at 45.26%）, when it reached to the maturity stage and was also the best time for cutting. In conclusion, the investment economic profit of P. massoniana plantation project is large and the risk is small, thus is suitable to be promoted in Guangxi.

关 键 词：桐棉松(Pinus massoniana Lamb.) 人工林 投资风险 评估 经济效益 

分 类 号：S791.248[农业科学—林木遗传育种] F224.5[农业科学—林学]