中国对外贸易成本对出口增长二元边际的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of China's Foreign Trade Costs on Dual Margin of Export Growth

作　　者：冯晓玲 马彪 FENG Xiao-ling;MA Biao

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2018年第2期18-35,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学基金重点项目(L16AGJ001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(3132017094;3132016361)

摘　　要：文章以新新贸易理论为基础,运用2001~2015年中国与10个主要国家(地区)的六位数产品出口数据分析了中国出口增长的规模、地域和结构特征,发现中国出口增长存在极大的脆弱性。接着,文章对中国出口增长的二元边际和对外贸易成本进行了测算,发现在中国的出口增长中,无论在出口额还是出口种类层面,集约边际都发挥着绝对主导的作用,而扩展边际的贡献较小。再次,文章通过实证分析了中国的对外贸易成本各组成部分对出口增长二元边际的影响,结果表明,固定贸易成本主要是对扩展边际起作用,可变贸易成本主要是对集约边际起作用。最后,根据文章结论,深入挖掘了背后丰富的政策含义,给出了相关的对策。Based on New-New Trade Theory and using HS-6-digit export data of China and 10 major countries （regions） in 2001-2015, this paper analyzes the scale, regions and structural characteristics of China＇s export growth and finds out that there is great vulnerability in China＇s export growth. Secondly, this paper also finds out that the intensive margin plays a dominant role, and the extensive margin contributes little no matter in the amount of exports or in the categories of exports in China＇s export growth by calculating dual margin and foreign trade cost of China＇s export growth. Thirdly, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of each component of China＇ s foreign trade costs on the dual margin of export growth. The result indicates that the fixed trade cost mainly acts on the extensive margin, and the variable trade cost mainly acts on the intensive margin. Finally, the paper deeply explores the policy implications and gives some according to the conclusion.

关 键 词：新新贸易理论 贸易成本 出口增长 二元边际 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]