长沙市城区大气PM_(2.5)浓度与居民每日死亡关系研究  

Association between PM2.5 concentration and daily resident mortality in urban area of Changsha

作　　者：奉琪 苏莎[1] 张劲夫[1] 朱彩明[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省长沙市疾病预防控制中心食品安全与环境卫生科,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2018年第2期131-136,共6页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]探讨长沙市城区大气污染物PM_(2.5)暴露对居民每日死亡风险的影响。[方法]收集2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日期间长沙市城区每日温度、相对湿度等气象数据,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2、CO等大气污染物数据和居民每日死亡数据。采用分布滞后非线性模型,控制时间长期趋势、气象因素、星期几及节假日效应等混杂因素,分析PM_(2.5)单独暴露及其与PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2、CO等联合暴露当日至滞后14 d时居民每日总死亡、心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险。[结果]长沙市城区PM_(2.5)年均质量浓度(以下简称"浓度")为63μg/m3。单污染物模型显示,PM_(2.5)质量浓度上升10μg/m3时,致居民每日总死亡(lag10)和每日心血管疾病死亡(lag1)的风险(RR及其95%CI)分别为1.051 8(1.006 5~1.099 4)和1.086 1(1.005 6~1.173 0),对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响无统计学意义。双污染物模型分析显示,分别引入NO_2、SO_2后,PM_(2.5)致居民每日总死亡的风险增加(RR=1.084 3,95%CI:1.027 8~1.143 9;RR=1.067 9,95%CI:1.015 5~1.123 0),致每日心血管疾病死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险降低;引入CO后,PM_(2.5)致居民每日总死亡、每日心血管疾病死亡的风险增加,致每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的风险降低。[结论]长沙市城区PM_(2.5)浓度升高可导致居民总死亡的风险增加。[Objective] To evaluate the effect of PM（2.5） exposure on daily resident mortality risk in the urban area of Changsha.[Methods] Daily meteorological data（temperature and relative humidity）,air pollutant data（PM（2.5）,PM（10）,NO2,SO2,and CO）,and daily resident mortality data in urban area of Changsha were collect from January 1,2014 to December 31,2016.Distributed lag non-linear model was used to evaluate the association between PM（2.5） exposure and co-exposure with PM（10）,NO2,SO2,and CO and daily all-cause mortality,cardiovascular disease mortality,and respiratory disease mortality from current day of exposure to lag 14 days,with adjustment for confounding factors such as long-term trend,meteorological factors,day of the week,and holiday effect.[Results] The annual mean concentration of PM（2.5） in urban area of Changsha was 63 μg/m3.In the single-pollutant models,an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM（2.5） was associated with increased risks（RR,95%CI） of daily all-cause mortality（lag10）（1.051 8,1.006 5-1.099 4） and daily cardiovascular disease mortality（lag1）（1.086 1,1.005 6-1.173 0）,but no significant result was found on daily respiratory disease mortality.In the two-pollutant models,after adjusted for NO2 and SO2,the relative risks（RR,95%CI） of daily all-cause mortality were 1.084 3（1.027 8-1.143 9） and 1.067 9（1.015 5-1.123 0）,respectively,while the relative risks of daily cardiovascular disease mortality and daily respiratory disease mortality were decreased.After adjusted for CO,the relative risks of daily all-cause mortality and daily cardiovascular disease mortality were increased,while the relative risk of respiratory disease mortality was decreased.[Conclusion] Increasing PM（2.5） concentrations may be associated with a higher risk of daily all-cause resident mortality in Changsha urban area.

关 键 词：PM2.5 死亡 分布滞后非线性模型 时间序列研究 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]