三种风场再分析资料在辽宁省海岸带的比较与评估  

Comparison and Evaluation of Three Types of Wind Field Reanalysis Data in Coastal Zone of Liaoning Province

作　　者：敖雪[1] 翟晴飞[2] 崔妍[1] 周晓宇[1] 易雪[1] 沈历都[1] 赵春雨[1] 林蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《高原气象》2018年第1期275-285,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：辽宁省农业攻关及产业化项目(2015103038);公益性行业专项(GYHY201306034);2015年辽宁省气象局科研课题(201518;201515)

摘　　要：利用1981-2015年辽宁省海岸带20个气象站常规观测资料与同期ERA-Interim、JRA-55和CFSR三种再分析资料进行对比分析,讨论了风速场再分析资料在辽宁省海岸带的适应性问题。结果表明,三种再分析资料与观测资料的大风相关性均通过显著性检验,ERA资料相关性最好,但ERA的最大小时风速明显较观测资料偏小。三种再分析资料在空间上的偏差有明显的不均匀性,绥中、兴城一带偏差较小,旅顺口站偏差较大;CFSR资料最大小时风速的偏差绝对值小于1的站点最多,适用性较好;ERA资料的大风次数与观测资料最为接近,且14:00(北京时,下同)最大小时风速和大风次数的偏差均较08:00偏小。三个海区最大小时风速平均绝对误差的差别不显著,基本在1.5~3 m·s-1之间,而大风次数的误差较显著,渤海海峡误差相对较大,黄海北部次之,渤海北部误差最小,其中CFSR资料的风速平均绝对误差最小。观测的最大小时风速和大风次数呈显著减少趋势,JRA和CFSR资料呈缓慢减少趋势,而ERA资料呈增加趋势;ERA和JRA资料的年代际曲线波动平稳,不能表现出观测资料的年代际变化趋势,CFSR资料与观测值最为接近,但是变化趋势较观测资料缓慢。在长期变化趋势空间分布上,CFSR资料的可信度相对较好,JRA资料次之,ERA资料差别较大。Using the comparison of the conventional observation data of 20 meteorological stations and the reanal- ysis data of ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and CFSR in coastal zone of Liaoning Province from 1981 to 2015 , the a- daptability of reanalysis wind velocity field in coastal zone of Liaoning Province were discussed. The results show that the correlation between the three reanalysis data and the observed data is significant, and ERA-Interim is the best. But the maximum hourly wind speed of ERA-Interim data is obviously smaller than the observed data. The spatial deviations of the three kinds of reanalysis data are obviously heterogeneous, what is smaller in Suizhong and Xingcheng but larger in Lushunkou. The absolute deviation of the maximum hourly wind speed of CFSR is less than 1, and the applicability is better. The wind speed of ERA-Interim data is close to that of observation da- ta, and the deviation of maximum hourly wind speed and gale number at 14：00 （ Beijing time, the same as after） was smaller than that at 08：00. The mean absolute error of maximum hourly wind speed in the three sea areas is not significant, which is between 1.5 and 3 m ~ s-1 , and the error of gale number is significant. The error of Bo- hai Strait is relatively large, the northern part of Yellow Sea and the northern part of Bohai Sea are the least. The mean absolute error of wind speed of CFSR data is the smallest. The observed data of maximum hourly wind speed and the number of wind events were significantly decreased, the JRA and CFSR data showed a slow de- creased trend, while the ERA data showed an increased trend. The interdecadal curve of ERA and JRA data fluc- tuated smoothly, which could not show the interdecadal variation trend of the observed data, the CFSR data is close to the observed value, but the trend is slower than that of the observed data. In point of the spatial distribu- tion of long-term trend, CFSR data credibility is relatively better, JRA data is second, and the difference of ERA-Interim data is larger.

关 键 词：再分析资料 辽宁省海岸带 最大小时风速 大风次数 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]